← Frontier Inference Margins · all research reports

In today's words — This is an archived research artifact. Where it says marginal serving gross margin, unit CM or serving contribution margin, the site now says serving margin; where it states a confidence interval, the site treats it as a judgment range, not a calibrated one. What the site adopted from any artifact is stated in the main report, which is authoritative where the two differ.
Research artifact — each page states its own provenance class in its header: verbatim originals carry SHA-256 stamps; adopted-findings summaries and reconstructions say so explicitly. Conclusions are synthesized (and where needed corrected) in the main report; each page carries its own run date.

Data-center and electricity registry

Built from checked-in evidence only. Programme rows remain programme rows and do not identify a facility.

Every triple carries two orthogonal labels: a closed basis (what kind of evidence stands behind it) and an observationKind (what the three numbers mean). Only a selected span, a tariff-derived delivered span and a two-load-state average/peak may carry different endpoints; a point, a floor, a ceiling, a milestone and a region fill are single values by construction.

Regions

id registered content basis observation source class
us-industrial $0.0617 / $0.0871 / $0.1053 per kWh analyst-set selected-span electricity study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) analyst-set
cn-coastal $0.0890 / $0.0980 / $0.1100 per kWh measured/credibly-reported tariff-derived-delivered electricity study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) measured/credibly-reported
cn-western $0.0600 / $0.0710 / $0.0870 per kWh measured/credibly-reported tariff-derived-delivered electricity study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) measured/credibly-reported

Named facilities

id registered content basis observation source class
xai-colossus-c1 Colossus C1, Memphis, Tennessee; mixed installed aggregate 220,000 / 225,000 / 230,000 across h100, h200, gb200 — no public per-SKU split (allocation: unsplit); milestone 100,000 h100 (2026-06-05) per observation per observation electricity study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) partial / purpose-built-ai
xai-colossus-ii Colossus 2, South Memphis/Whitehaven, Tennessee; 110,000 gb200 (point); 110,000 gb300 (point) per observation per observation named-facility study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) partial / purpose-built-ai

Programmes (not facilities)

id registered content basis observation source class
deepseek-h800-serving-2025 Disclosed V3/R1 production serving trace; average 1,814 / peak 2,224 h800 per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
anthropic-rainier-trainium Project Rainier completed Trainium2 milestone; 500,000 trn2 (milestone) per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
anthropic-trn2-in-use-2026 Anthropic-wide Trainium2 in-use floor; 1,000,000 trn2 (floor) per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
anthropic-tpu-commitment TPU v7 capacity commitment; 1,000,000 tpu7 (ceiling) per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
anthropic-tpu7-direct-purchase-estimate Estimated direct-purchase component of the TPU v7 commitment; 400,000 tpu7 (point) per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
anthropic-tpu7-gcp-rented-estimate Estimated GCP-rented component of the TPU v7 commitment; 600,000 tpu7 (point) per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
anthropic-colossus-c1-capacity Claude capacity at Colossus C1; no public count per observation per observation electricity study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
anthropic-spacexai-capacity-contract Colossus mixed-NVIDIA reserved-capacity contract; no public count per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
google-spacexai-capacity-contract Future mixed-NVIDIA reserved-capacity contract; no public count per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
google-ironwood-ga Ironwood / TPU v7 Gemini serving platform; no public count per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
ant-h20-production-node SGLang/Ant DeepSeek-R1 production node; 16 h20 (point) per observation per observation site/engine-data-v22.js programme
huawei-cloudmatrix-384 CloudMatrix 384 DeepSeek-R1 demonstration; 384 ascend (point) per observation per observation research/provider-dives/deepseek-gptpro.md programme
deepseek-v4-ascend950-serving DeepSeek V4 support on Ascend 950-series supernodes; no public count per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
zai-third-party-cloud-inference Cloud-hosted GLM training, hosting, and inference; no public count per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
moonshot-kimi-k2-h800-training Kimi K2 H800 training topology; no public count per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
moonshot-alibaba-hopper-2026 Reported Alibaba Hopper-generation compute arrangement; no public count per observation per observation fleet-composition study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme
alibaba-ulanqab-m890 Kimi K3 production service on Ulanqab M890 instances; no public count per observation per observation China electricity-tariff study of 2026-08-23 (not published separately) programme

Planning-rent quotes and the selection policy

Selection policy: low-committed — the low/committed planning observation for each hardware — a selection policy, not one literal contract class.

quote id hardware $/hr (lo / mid / hi) rate class term as of role
gb200-owner-adopted-scenario-2026-09 gb200 $4.5 reserved-neocloud-estimate unspecified 2026-09-10 planning default
gb300-owner-adopted-scenario-2026-09 gb300 $6 reserved-neocloud-estimate unspecified 2026-09-10 planning default
trn3-owner-adopted-scenario-2026-09 trn3 $2.2 reserved-neocloud-estimate unspecified 2026-09-10 planning default
h100-oneyear-lowcommitted-2026-08 h100 $2.35 / $2.4 / $3.19 one-year-low-committed about one year 2026-08-22 planning default
h200-reserved-neocloud-2026-08 h200 $3 / $3.68 / $3.99 reserved-1-2yr about one to two years 2026-08-22 planning default
gb200-coreweave-public-slice-2026-08 gb200 $10.5 on-demand-public-slice on demand 2026-08-22 alternate
gb200-aws-capacity-block-2026-08 gb200 $10.582 capacity-block capacity block reservation 2026-08-22 alternate
gb200-public-slice-capacity-block-span-2026-08 gb200 $10.5 / $10.54 / $10.582 on-demand-public-slice-and-capacity-block on demand and capacity block 2026-08-22 alternate
h20-china-specialist-bare-metal-2026-08 h20 $0.71 / $0.82 / $1.02 monthly-term-bare-metal monthly / annual term 2026-08-22 planning default
h20-alibaba-managed-on-demand-2026-08 h20 $7.43 / $9.04 / $10.66 managed-cloud-on-demand on demand 2026-08-22 alternate
tpu7-google-3yr-committed-2026-08 tpu7 $5.4 / $5.4 / $5.94 committed-3yr-list three-year committed 2026-08-22 planning default
tpu7-anthropic-strategic-estimate-2025-11 tpu7 $1.6 strategic-estimate multi-year strategic 2025-11-28 alternate
trn2-aws-capacity-block-2026-08 trn2 $2.235 capacity-block capacity block reservation 2026-08-22 planning default
h800-china-annual-commit-2026-provisional h800 $1.75 one-year-low-committed annual commit 2026-08-22 planning default
ascend-tender-candidate-2026-provisional ascend $1.95 tender-candidate tender candidate 2026-08-22 planning default

Hardware with no admissible public planning quote

These rows resolve through the unavailable-row path and price nothing unless a reader or a caller states the replay explicitly. There is no silent fallback to a retired value.

hardware why no default declared replay

Coverage accounting

Denominator: share of the MODELED fleet resting on DC-specific public evidence — not how much of the real fleet is known.

The three named-site / programme-type / generic-fill parts partition the modeled blend and sum to 100. The SKU/workload count-backed share is non-additive: it says how much of the same blend rests on a disclosed count for the exact key at the relevant workload and date, and it is never added to the three. Percentages are DERIVED from the stored key-level evidence and the selected modeled blend; the registry stores none of them.

company preset named-site serving programme-type generic fill SKU/workload count-backed (non-additive) facility rows programme rows
anthropic opus 50.7% 33.3% 16% 0% xai-colossus-c1 anthropic-rainier-trainium, anthropic-trn2-in-use-2026, anthropic-tpu-commitment, anthropic-tpu7-direct-purchase-estimate, anthropic-tpu7-gcp-rented-estimate, anthropic-colossus-c1-capacity, anthropic-spacexai-capacity-contract
anthropic sonnet 50% 25% 25% 0% xai-colossus-c1 anthropic-rainier-trainium, anthropic-trn2-in-use-2026, anthropic-tpu-commitment, anthropic-tpu7-direct-purchase-estimate, anthropic-tpu7-gcp-rented-estimate, anthropic-colossus-c1-capacity, anthropic-spacexai-capacity-contract
anthropic haiku 50% 25% 25% 0% xai-colossus-c1 anthropic-rainier-trainium, anthropic-trn2-in-use-2026, anthropic-tpu-commitment, anthropic-tpu7-direct-purchase-estimate, anthropic-tpu7-gcp-rented-estimate, anthropic-colossus-c1-capacity, anthropic-spacexai-capacity-contract
openai gpt 0% 0% 100% 0% none none
openai terra 0% 0% 100% 0% none none
openai luna 0% 0% 100% 0% none none
google gemini 0% 0% 100% 0% none google-ironwood-ga, google-spacexai-capacity-contract
google gemflash 0% 0% 100% 0% none google-ironwood-ga, google-spacexai-capacity-contract
xai grok 0% 0% 100% 0% xai-colossus-c1, xai-colossus-ii none
deepseek dsr1 0% 100% 0% 100% none deepseek-h800-serving-2025, deepseek-v4-ascend950-serving
deepseek dsv4 0% 0% 100% 0% none deepseek-h800-serving-2025, deepseek-v4-ascend950-serving
deepseek dsv4f 0% 0% 100% 0% none deepseek-h800-serving-2025, deepseek-v4-ascend950-serving
zhipu glm 0% 0% 100% 0% none zai-third-party-cloud-inference
zhipu glm47 0% 0% 100% 0% none zai-third-party-cloud-inference
moonshot kimi 0% 0% 100% 0% none moonshot-kimi-k2-h800-training, moonshot-alibaba-hopper-2026, alibaba-ulanqab-m890