← Frontier Inference Margins · all research reports

Research artifact — each page states its own provenance class in its header: verbatim originals carry SHA-256 stamps; adopted-findings summaries and reconstructions say so explicitly. Conclusions are synthesized (and where needed corrected) in the main report; each page carries its own run date.

Adopted grounding ledger — machine-generated RECONSTRUCTION

What this is: every parameter the calculator's presets pin, with value, source and evidence label, generated directly from the deployed preset registry (engine.js v2.1.4-2026-07-13) and its dossier annotations — so this page cannot drift from what the calculator actually computes. What this is not: the original "192-row preset grounding pack" consultation artifact. That pack's full row set lived in conversation-sandbox files that expired; its adopted decisions are summarized in the consultation page, and a dated author-model re-emission with delta notes is published as the preset-pack re-audit. Where any re-emission differs from this ledger, this ledger (the adopted values) wins. Generated 2026-07-13 · labels: DISCLOSED / CREDIBLY REPORTED / COMMUNITY ESTIMATE / SPECULATION (from the on-page dossiers).

Model presets

Claude Opus 4.x

parameter adopted value source label
active 300 Page-authored 300B scenario value. TeorTaxes's cited corpus supplies only a qualitative Fable observation ('shockingly FEW active') and a relative Opus bound; GPT-5.6 Pro's independent consult also centered on 300B — neither supplies a measured count SPECULATION
total 5000 Deduction from Musk's Apr 2026 post (Grok 0.5T = 1/10 Opus); knowledge-probe methods carry ±3× bars COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
precision fp8 Assumed frontier norm; FP8 paths standard on H100+ fleets SPECULATION
priceIn 5 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
priceOut 25 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default

Claude Sonnet 5 (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 120 4.x-era estimate; Sonnet 5's architecture is undisclosed SPECULATION
total 1000 Musk post deduction (Grok = ½ Sonnet 4.x); carried over SPECULATION
precision fp8 Assumed frontier norm SPECULATION
priceIn 2 Anthropic pricing page (intro through Aug 31, 2026) DISCLOSED
priceOut 10 Anthropic pricing page (intro through Aug 31, 2026) DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
tariff.validUntil 2026-08-31 → {"priceIn":3,"priceOut":15} intro $2/$10 ends Aug 31, 2026; standard $3/$15 from Sep 1 DISCLOSED

Claude Haiku 4.5 (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 40 Pure scenario value SPECULATION
total 350 Pure scenario value SPECULATION
precision fp8 Assumed frontier norm SPECULATION
priceIn 1 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
priceOut 5 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default

GPT-5.6 Sol (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 105 Zephyr '~100B active range' + Epoch's independent inference-economics estimate (80% range 50–220B) COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
total 5000 Dive central ~5T; subjective range 1–20T — effective-capacity probes allow 3–29T SPECULATION
precision fp8 MXFP4 demonstrated in gpt-oss; Sol's production layers undisclosed SPECULATION
priceIn 5 OpenAI API pricing (Standard short-context) DISCLOSED
priceOut 30 OpenAI API pricing DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":20,"h200":25,"gb200":45,"gb300":10} Hopper/Blackwell across Microsoft/OCI/CoreWeave (disclosed platforms; shares guessed) SPECULATION
nativeTraffic OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% (9:1 / 78%) The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry. · 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output benchmark convention (Artificial Analysis) CREDIBLY REPORTED
dive.rentMult 0.85 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 73 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.75 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact balanced §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

Gemini 3.1 Pro (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 120 Scenario midpoint (bracket 60–240B); no credible leak exists SPECULATION
total 3000 Scenario midpoint (bracket 1–4T) SPECULATION
precision fp8 Ironwood exposes FP8; Gemini's formats undisclosed SPECULATION
priceIn 2 Gemini API pricing, ≤200K tier DISCLOSED
priceOut 12 Gemini API pricing (output incl. thinking) DISCLOSED
blend {"tpu7":100} TPUs serve Gemini (disclosed); simplified to Ironwood — older TPU fleets unmodeled SPECULATION
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
dive.rentMult 0.3 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 75 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.55 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

Grok 4.5 (1.5T) (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 200 Dive central ~200B (13% activation); range 100–500B — Grok-2's lineage ran unusually dense (42.7%) SPECULATION
total 1500 Musk statement, corroborated by Cursor's MoE description DISCLOSED
precision fp8 Grok-2 recipe was FP8/TP8 — best public prior SPECULATION
priceIn 2 xAI API pricing (launched Jul 8, 2026) DISCLOSED
priceOut 6 xAI API pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 25 $0.50 cached / $2.00 input = 25% DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":45,"h200":5,"gb200":25,"gb300":25} Colossus I/II composition per SpaceXAI prospectus (shares approximated) CREDIBLY REPORTED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
dive.rentMult 0.62 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 48 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 1 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.ioRatio 3 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.cacheHit 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

Kimi K2.7 Code (1T/32B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 32 Open checkpoint config DISCLOSED
total 1000 Open checkpoint (595GB) DISCLOSED
precision fp8 Released weights are INT4; hosted path undisclosed — 8-bit modeled SPECULATION
priceIn 0.95 Moonshot platform pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 4 Moonshot platform pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 20 $0.19/$0.95 = 20% DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":70,"h20":30} Historical A800/H800 production (Mooncake); current fleet undisclosed SPECULATION
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
dive.rentMult 1 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 60 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.83 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact balanced §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.ioRatio 8 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.cacheHit 40 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

DeepSeek V3/R1 (671B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 37 V3 technical report DISCLOSED
total 671 V3 technical report DISCLOSED
precision fp8 FP8 matmuls, BF16 attention (their disclosure) DISCLOSED
priceIn 0.55 R1 price list (historical) DISCLOSED
priceOut 2.19 R1 price list (historical) DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 25 $0.14 hit / $0.55 miss = 25% DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":100} All service ran on 8×H800 nodes (disclosed) DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% (4:1 / 56%) DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption. · 608B in / 168B out = 3.6:1 (slider granularity: 4) DISCLOSED
dive.rentMult 1.14 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 100 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 1 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

DeepSeek V4 Pro (1.6T/49B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 49 Official release + technical report DISCLOSED
total 1600 Official release DISCLOSED
precision fp4 Selective FP4 (routed experts + indexer; KV BF16/FP8) — modeled as fp4 where hardware supports it DISCLOSED
priceIn 0.435 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing (Jul 9) DISCLOSED
priceOut 0.87 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 1 $0.003625/$0.435 = 0.83% (slider granularity: 1%) DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":50,"h20":20,"ascend":30} H800 stock + reported Ascend 950 involvement; split unknown SPECULATION
nativeTraffic DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% (4:1 / 56%) DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption. · 2025 disclosed traffic shape carried forward SPECULATION
dive.rentMult 0.857 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 100 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 1.05 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.blend {"h800":100} §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

DeepSeek V4-Flash (284B/13B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 13 Official release DISCLOSED
total 284 Official release DISCLOSED
precision fp4 Same selective-FP4 family as V4 Pro DISCLOSED
priceIn 0.14 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 0.28 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 2 $0.0028/$0.14 = 2% DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":50,"h20":20,"ascend":30} Same speculative China mix as V4 Pro SPECULATION
nativeTraffic DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% (4:1 / 56%) DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption. · 2025 traffic shape carried forward SPECULATION

GLM 5.2 (744B/40B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 40 Open release DISCLOSED
total 744 Open release DISCLOSED
precision fp8 BF16/FP8 checkpoints; first-party serving precision undisclosed (W8A8/W4A8 recipes exist) SPECULATION
priceIn 1.4 Z.ai international pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 4.4 Z.ai international pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 19 $0.26/$1.40 = 19% DISCLOSED
blend {"ascend":40,"h800":40,"h20":20} Nine domestic platforms named, zero shares disclosed SPECULATION
nativeTraffic ncode-informed scenario 8:1 / 41% (8:1 / 41%) The 41% cache-hit rate and 81k-token average inputs are @_xjdr's free-week observations; the 8:1 input:output ratio is a site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption (the cited posts report no output-length or I/O split). One event informing a scenario, not a generic 'coding' archetype. · Site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption; @_xjdr reported 81k average inputs but no output-length or I/O split SPECULATION
dive.rentMult 1.9 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 75 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.6 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact balanced §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

GLM-4.7 (355B/32B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 32 Open release DISCLOSED
total 355 Open release DISCLOSED
precision fp8 BF16/FP8 checkpoints; first-party serving precision undisclosed SPECULATION
priceIn 0.6 Z.ai pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 2.2 Z.ai pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 18 $0.11/$0.60 ≈ 18% DISCLOSED
blend {"ascend":40,"h800":40,"h20":20} As GLM-5.2 — nine platforms named, shares unknown SPECULATION
nativeTraffic ncode-informed scenario 8:1 / 41% (8:1 / 41%) The 41% cache-hit rate and 81k-token average inputs are @_xjdr's free-week observations; the 8:1 input:output ratio is a site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption (the cited posts report no output-length or I/O split). One event informing a scenario, not a generic 'coding' archetype. · Carries over GLM-5.2's site-assumed 8:1; no GLM-4.7 traffic telemetry supports it SPECULATION

GPT-5.6 Terra (tariff scenario) — TARIFF SCENARIO (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 50 Scenario central from dive range 20–110B SPECULATION
total 1000 Scenario central from dive range 0.25–5T SPECULATION
precision fp8 Family assumption SPECULATION
priceIn 2.5 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 15 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 10 90% cache discount (OpenAI standard) DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":20,"h200":25,"gb200":45,"gb300":10} Sol's fleet assumption SPECULATION
nativeTraffic OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% (9:1 / 78%) The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry. · Same 7:2:1 convention as Sol CREDIBLY REPORTED

GPT-5.6 Luna (tariff scenario) — TARIFF SCENARIO (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 20 Scenario central from dive range 8–50B SPECULATION
total 250 Scenario central from dive range 0.05–1.5T SPECULATION
precision fp8 Family assumption SPECULATION
priceIn 1 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 6 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 10 90% cache discount DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":20,"h200":25,"gb200":45,"gb300":10} Sol's fleet assumption SPECULATION
nativeTraffic OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% (9:1 / 78%) The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry. · Sol convention CREDIBLY REPORTED

Gemini 3.5 Flash (tariff scenario) — TARIFF SCENARIO (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 20 Speed-based community guesses 10–16B; scenario value SPECULATION
total 600 Bracketed 0.4–1.2T in the dive; 405B lower-bound applies to the PRIOR generation SPECULATION
precision fp8 Unknown; FP8-equivalent assumed SPECULATION
priceIn 1.5 Gemini API pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 9 Gemini API pricing (incl. thinking) DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 10 $0.15/$1.50 = 10% DISCLOSED
blend {"tpu7":100} TPU (as 3.1 Pro) SPECULATION
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. · Default reference mix SPECULATION

Custom (define with sliders)

parameter adopted value source label
active 100 User input (slider) USER-SET
total 1000 User input (slider) USER-SET
precision fp8 User input (slider) USER-SET
priceIn 3 User input (slider) USER-SET
priceOut 15 User input (slider) USER-SET
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default

Perspective presets

[lens] Central scenario (Claude)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental basis — market-observable, unlike internal TCO; the basis choice is the page's SPECULATION
rentMult 1 Neocloud list ≈ 1.0× the HW table's rates COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
util 50 Page-set 30–60% sensitivity band, middle SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Open-source-best (SGLang-class) = 1.0 by construction COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
interact balanced Balanced latency — neither batch-farm nor premium-interactive SPECULATION
batchShare 15 Modest batch-tier adoption SPECULATION
discount 5 Light enterprise discounting SPECULATION

[replay] §10 dive (this model)

Sets nothing — replays the model's own §10 dive fields (see each model's dive.* rows).

[range exploration] ≥90% · owned-TCO estate route

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode tco Page-chosen owned-TCO basis — hourly cost built from capex, power, datacenter and opex SPECULATION
util 55 Page-set 55% occupancy scenario value SPECULATION
stackMult 1.1 Page-set 1.1× serving-stack scenario value SPECULATION
interact balanced Central-scenario balanced latency SPECULATION
batchShare 15 Central-scenario 15% batch-tier share SPECULATION
discount 5 Central-scenario 5% blended discount SPECULATION

[range exploration] 80–90% · market rents, aggressive stack, throughput

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Page-set market-rental basis SPECULATION
rentMult 1 Market spot rate = this page's base H100 rate (1.0×) COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
util 70 Page-set 70% fleet-utilization scenario value SPECULATION
stackMult 1.25 Page-set 1.25× serving-stack scenario value SPECULATION
interact batch Page-set throughput-first serving SPECULATION
batchShare 10 Page-set 10% batch-price share SPECULATION
discount 0 Page-set 0% negotiated discount SPECULATION

[range exploration] 80–90% · sub-market rents, above-baseline stack

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Page-set market-rental basis SPECULATION
rentMult 0.9 Page-set 0.90× scenario value SPECULATION
util 65 Page-set 65% occupancy scenario value SPECULATION
stackMult 1.15 Page-set 1.15× serving-stack scenario value SPECULATION
interact batch Page-set throughput-first serving SPECULATION
batchShare 10 Page-set 10% batch-price share SPECULATION
discount 0 Page-set 0% negotiated discount SPECULATION

[range exploration] <60% · reported-margin inverse diagnostic

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Page-chosen hyperscaler-rental basis to test the reported figures SPECULATION
rentMult 1.6 Cloud list ≈1.5-1.8× neocloud (market observation, page-selected) COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
util 35 Page-set 35% (peak-provisioning story) SPECULATION
stackMult 0.85 Page-set 0.85× scenario value SPECULATION
interact balanced Page-set balanced mode SPECULATION
batchShare 25 Page-set 25% scenario value SPECULATION
discount 20 Page-set 20% (enterprise discounting is real, the level is page-chosen) SPECULATION

[lens] Strategic-partner fleet (GPT-5.6 Pro)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame at strategic rates SPECULATION
rentMult 0.7 Site applies SemiAnalysis's ~$1.60/TPU-hour estimate (Nov 2025 analysis of the 600k GCP-rented TPU tranche, inclusive of Google's margin — an estimate, not a disclosed contract price) as a 0.7x scalar across the modeled heterogeneous fleet SPECULATION derived from CREDIBLY REPORTED
util 70 Its 75% occupancy central (70 used here) SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Mature-lab stack ≈ OSS-best SPECULATION
interact batch Throughput-oriented economic-marginal frame SPECULATION
batchShare 0 Not separately modeled by the dive SPECULATION
discount 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
blend {"tpu7":40,"gb300":25,"gb200":15,"trn2":15,"h200":5} Its stated 40/25/15/15/5 TPU-heavy fleet SPECULATION

[valuation replay] xAI cash-marginal (dive operating point)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame carrying the cash rate SPECULATION
rentMult 0.156 $0.60 ÷ the Colossus blend's $3.85 weighted rate = 0.156 SPECULATION
util 48 Held at the dive's operating point — only the valuation changes across the three xAI lenses SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Dive operating point SPECULATION
interact batch Dive operating point SPECULATION
batchShare 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
discount 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
ioRatio 3 The dive's 3:1 uncached workload — held fixed across all three xAI lenses SPECULATION
cacheHit 0 Dive workload (uncached) SPECULATION

[valuation replay] xAI opportunity-cost (Anthropic contract)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame carrying the contract rate SPECULATION
rentMult 1.37 $5.27 ÷ $3.85 blend rate = 1.37 DISCLOSED (rate); SPECULATION (application)
util 48 Held at the dive's operating point SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Dive operating point SPECULATION
interact batch Dive operating point SPECULATION
batchShare 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
discount 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
ioRatio 3 The dive's 3:1 uncached workload — held fixed across all three xAI lenses SPECULATION
cacheHit 0 Dive workload (uncached) SPECULATION

[lens] China public-cloud on-demand (Jul 2026)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental (public rate cards) DISCLOSED
rentMult 6.15 Grounding-pack computation vs IDC defaults: H20 6.24×, H800 6.07×, 910C-proxy 6.15× (rate cards DISCLOSED; the blend into one multiplier is analytic) DISCLOSED (rates); SPECULATION (blend)
util 35 Enterprise on-demand occupancy per the grounding pack (~35%) SPECULATION
stackMult 1 OSS baseline SPECULATION
interact balanced Balanced SPECULATION
batchShare 0 None SPECULATION
discount 0 None SPECULATION

[SLO replay] Ant Group production H20 (<50ms)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental at the page's H20 IDC rate SPECULATION
rentMult 1 1.0 — Ant's own cost basis is undisclosed SPECULATION
util 100 100 = measured-operating-point convention (per-occupied-chip); Ant's fleet occupancy is undisclosed SPECULATION (convention)
stackMult 1 1.0 = the Pro tier this page's H20 MFU is fit to DISCLOSED (anchor)
interact batch Their production batching DISCLOSED
batchShare 0 Not applicable SPECULATION
discount 0 Not applicable SPECULATION
blend {"h20":100} H20-only (their published deployment) DISCLOSED

[replay] DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Their stated leasing-cost frame DISCLOSED
rentMult 1.14 $2/hr ÷ current IDC $1.75 = 1.14× DISCLOSED (assumption in source)
util 100 100% — disclosed throughputs are averages over deployed nodes; a divisor would double-count idle time DISCLOSED (derived)
stackMult 1 Their stack = the calibration baseline DISCLOSED
interact batch Throughput-first production serving DISCLOSED
batchShare 0 Not applicable in their billing DISCLOSED
discount 0 Theoretical list billing (their own caveat: realized was lower) DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":100} All-H800 (disclosed) DISCLOSED

Traffic-mix profiles (v2.1.2 axis)

profile I/O cache hit provenance
Reference 15:1 / 60% 15:1 60% Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point.
OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% 9:1 78% The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry.
DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% 4:1 56% DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption.
ncode-informed scenario 8:1 / 41% 8:1 41% The 41% cache-hit rate and 81k-token average inputs are @_xjdr's free-week observations; the 8:1 input:output ratio is a site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption (the cited posts report no output-length or I/O split). One event informing a scenario, not a generic 'coding' archetype.
Kimi dive mix 8:1 / 40% 8:1 40% The Moonshot dive's Mooncake-like convention — a dive assumption the dive itself declined to firm up.
Uncached 3:1 / 0% 3:1 0% The xAI dive's operating convention: output-heavy traffic, no billed prefix cache.

Hardware table (per-platform adopted values)

platform dense FP8 PF HBM GB BW TB/s rent $/hr capex $ effDec effPre note
H100 SXM 1.98 80 3.35 2.4 25000 0.07 0.15 2022. Anchor: DeepSeek served V3/R1 on H800 (H100-class compute). Prefill MFU is reconstructed FRESH-only (the disclosed 73.7k/node input flow includes the 56.3% disk-cache-hit share).
H200 1.98 141 4.8 2.9 32000 0.085 0.36 Same compute as H100, 1.76× HBM capacity/1.4× bandwidth → better batching.
GB200 NVL72 5 186 8 4.5 45000 0.15 0.42 72-GPU NVLink domain (~$3-3.5M/rack ⇒ ~$44-49k/GPU). Per-GPU dense FP8 = 5.0 PF (NVIDIA sparse/dense split, verified — the widely-copied 4.5 PF is B200's). Anchor: vLLM ~10.1k decode tok/s/GPU on R1 reproduces at 15% MFU; the source run's precision basis (possibly NVFP4) is not fully pinned, so treat as an upper anchor. Neocloud rates $3.50-6/hr (Jul 2026).
GB300 NVL72 5 288 8 6 55000 0.127 0.45 Blackwell Ultra: 15 PF dense FP4 (1.67× B200), 288GB HBM. Anchor: SGLang >12k tok/s/GPU on V4 Pro (FP4+MTP) reproduces at 12.7% × 1.85 FP4 using the now-DISCLOSED 49B active (v1 fit assumed ~66B); InferenceX ~17× H100 FP8. xjdr served GLM 5.2 on these ($4-7/hr early rates).
H800 (China) 1.98 80 3.35 1.75 40000 0.07 0.15 H100 compute with NVLink capped at 400GB/s (export SKU, finite pre-ban stock — capex carries the scarcity premium). THE DeepSeek V3/R1 workhorse. Prefill MFU = FRESH-only reconstruction (~4,026 tok/s/GPU net of the 56.3% disk-cache share; the raw 9,212 aggregate includes cache hits). Annual-commit IDC rate $1.47-2.06/hr mid-2026; DeepSeek's 2025 disclosure assumed $2/hr.
H20 (China) 0.296 96 4 1 20000 0.17 0.5 The China-legal NVIDIA SKU: only 296 TF dense FP8 but 4.0 TB/s HBM — decode is bandwidth-bound, so it serves far better than its FLOPS suggest (hence the high effective MFU vs a tiny denominator). Default 17% = the hardware dive's NEUTRAL recommendation (~680 tok/s at the tighter Ant Pro tier); the relaxed <70ms production anchor (714 tok/s) reproduces at 18%. Rental class matters: same chip spans ~$0.76 (IDC annual) to $7+ (hyperscaler on-demand).
TPU v7 Ironwood 4.61 192 7.37 4.2 35000 0.13 0.4 Google's inference TPU (GA Mar 31, 2026): 4,614 TF FP8 ≈ B200-class, 9,216-chip pods. Anthropic committed up to ~1M TPUs (Oct 2025). Google-internal cost unknown — estimates.
Trainium2 1.3 96 2.9 1.5 15000 0.055 0.3 GA Dec 2024. Project Rainier launched with ~500k Trainium2 for Anthropic (activated ~Nov 2025); Anthropic reported >1M Trainium2 in use across AWS by Apr 2026. Cheap per chip, weaker software stack — estimates; NO public serving anchor.
Trainium3 2.51 144 4.9 2.2 20000 0.08 0.34 GA Dec 2025: 144-chip UltraServers, 362 PF FP8 ⇒ 2.51 PF/chip, 144GB HBM3e. AWS's aggressive cost-per-token play — pricing estimates.
Ascend 910C 1.504 128 3.2 1.95 23000 0.07 0.28 Huawei's dual-die flagship (SMIC 7nm). NO native FP8 — 8-bit here means INT8 (1.504 PF per Huawei's Atlas spec; a widely-quoted 1,054 figure is a typo in the CloudMatrix paper). Default 7% = the hardware dive's NEUTRAL recommendation (~1,420 tok/s on R1-class; range 5-10%): Huawei's own optimized 384-NPU CloudMatrix anchor (1,943 tok/s) reproduces at 9.5% (stack ≈1.36), while DeepSeek's internal '60% of H100' eval implies ~5.5-6.5%. Rent = Huatai procurement award ($1.71-2.25/hr); CloudMatrix 384 ≈ RMB 60M.

265 parameter rows, regenerated from the registry on every run — node build-grounding-ledger.mjs.