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Research artifact — each page states its own provenance class in its header: verbatim originals carry SHA-256 stamps; adopted-findings summaries and reconstructions say so explicitly. Conclusions are synthesized (and where needed corrected) in the main report; each page carries its own run date.

Adopted grounding ledger — machine-generated RECONSTRUCTION

What this is: every parameter the calculator's presets pin, with value, source and evidence label, generated directly from the deployed preset registry (engine.js v3.0.0-2026-08-13), the live roofline/data registry (engine-data-v22.js), and their dossier annotations — so this page cannot drift from what the calculator actually computes. What this is not: the original "192-row preset grounding pack" consultation artifact. That pack's full row set lived in conversation-sandbox files that expired; its adopted decisions are summarized in the consultation page, and a dated author-model re-emission with delta notes is published as the preset-pack re-audit. Where any re-emission differs from this ledger, this ledger (the adopted values) wins. Generated 2026-07-26 · labels: DISCLOSED / CREDIBLY REPORTED / COMMUNITY ESTIMATE / SPECULATION (from the on-page dossiers).

Model presets

Claude Opus 4.x

parameter adopted value source label
active 300 Page-authored 300B scenario value. TeorTaxes's cited corpus supplies only a qualitative Fable observation ('shockingly FEW active') and a relative Opus bound; GPT-5.6 Pro's independent consult also centered on 300B — neither supplies a measured count SPECULATION
total 2500 Page-adopted 2–3T planning band, scalar 2.5T (adjudicated 2026-07-24), informed by newer community estimates; the Musk Apr 2026 relative post is re-read as the prior flagship, Opus 4.6 — its 5T deduction is preserved as a labeled size case (knowledge-probe methods carry ±3× bars) COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
precision fp8 Assumed frontier norm; FP8 paths standard on H100+ fleets SPECULATION
priceIn 5 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
priceOut 25 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default

Claude Sonnet 5 (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 120 4.x-era estimate; Sonnet 5's architecture is undisclosed SPECULATION
total 1000 Musk post deduction (Grok = ½ Sonnet 4.x); carried over SPECULATION
precision fp8 Assumed frontier norm SPECULATION
priceIn 2 Anthropic pricing page (intro through Aug 31, 2026) DISCLOSED
priceOut 10 Anthropic pricing page (intro through Aug 31, 2026) DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
tariff.validUntil 2026-08-31 → {"priceIn":3,"priceOut":15} intro $2/$10 ends Aug 31, 2026; standard $3/$15 from Sep 1 DISCLOSED

Claude Haiku 4.5 (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 40 Pure scenario value SPECULATION
total 350 Pure scenario value SPECULATION
precision fp8 Assumed frontier norm SPECULATION
priceIn 1 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
priceOut 5 Anthropic price list DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default

GPT-5.6 Sol (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 105 Zephyr '~100B active range' + Epoch's independent inference-economics estimate (80% range 50–220B) COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
total 5000 Dive central ~5T; subjective range 1–20T — effective-capacity probes allow 3–29T SPECULATION
precision fp8 MXFP4 demonstrated in gpt-oss; Sol's production layers undisclosed SPECULATION
priceIn 5 OpenAI API pricing (Standard short-context) DISCLOSED
priceOut 30 OpenAI API pricing DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":20,"h200":25,"gb200":45,"gb300":10} Hopper/Blackwell across Microsoft/OCI/CoreWeave (disclosed platforms; shares guessed) SPECULATION
nativeTraffic OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% (9:1 / 78%) The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry. · 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output benchmark convention (Artificial Analysis) CREDIBLY REPORTED
dive.rentMult 0.85 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 73 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.75 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact balanced §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

Gemini 3.1 Pro (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 120 Scenario midpoint (bracket 60–240B); no credible leak exists SPECULATION
total 3000 Scenario midpoint (bracket 1–4T) SPECULATION
precision fp8 Ironwood exposes FP8; Gemini's formats undisclosed SPECULATION
priceIn 2 Gemini API pricing, ≤200K tier DISCLOSED
priceOut 12 Gemini API pricing (output incl. thinking) DISCLOSED
blend {"tpu7":100} TPUs serve Gemini (disclosed); simplified to Ironwood — older TPU fleets unmodeled SPECULATION
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
dive.rentMult 0.3 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 75 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.55 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

Grok 4.5 (1.5T) (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 200 Dive central ~200B (13% activation); range 100–500B — Grok-2's lineage ran unusually dense (42.7%) SPECULATION
total 1500 Musk statement, corroborated by Cursor's MoE description DISCLOSED
precision fp8 Grok-2 recipe was FP8/TP8 — best public prior SPECULATION
priceIn 2 xAI API pricing (launched Jul 8, 2026) DISCLOSED
priceOut 6 xAI API pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 25 $0.50 cached / $2.00 input = 25% DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":45,"h200":5,"gb200":25,"gb300":25} Colossus I/II composition per SpaceXAI prospectus (shares approximated) CREDIBLY REPORTED
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
dive.rentMult 0.62 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 48 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 1 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.ioRatio 3 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.cacheHit 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

Kimi K2.7 Code (1T/32B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 32 Open checkpoint config DISCLOSED
total 1000 Open checkpoint (595GB) DISCLOSED
precision fp8 Released weights are INT4; hosted path undisclosed — 8-bit modeled SPECULATION
priceIn 0.95 Moonshot platform pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 4 Moonshot platform pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 20 $0.19/$0.95 = 20% DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":70,"h20":30} Historical A800/H800 production (Mooncake); current fleet undisclosed SPECULATION
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default
dive.rentMult 1 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 60 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.83 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact balanced §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.ioRatio 8 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.cacheHit 40 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

DeepSeek V3/R1 (671B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 37 V3 technical report DISCLOSED
total 671 V3 technical report DISCLOSED
precision fp8 FP8 matmuls, BF16 attention (their disclosure) DISCLOSED
priceIn 0.55 R1 price list (historical) DISCLOSED
priceOut 2.19 R1 price list (historical) DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 25 $0.14 hit / $0.55 miss = 25% DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":100} All service ran on 8×H800 nodes (disclosed) DISCLOSED
nativeTraffic DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% (4:1 / 56%) DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption. · 608B in / 168B out = 3.6:1 (slider granularity: 4) DISCLOSED
dive.rentMult 1.14 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 100 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 1 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

DeepSeek V4 Pro (1.6T/49B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 49 Official release + technical report DISCLOSED
total 1600 Official release DISCLOSED
precision fp4 Selective FP4 (routed experts + indexer; KV BF16/FP8) — modeled as fp4 where hardware supports it DISCLOSED
priceIn 0.435 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing (Jul 9) DISCLOSED
priceOut 0.87 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 1 $0.003625/$0.435 = 0.83% (slider granularity: 1%) DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":50,"h20":20,"ascend":30} H800 stock + reported Ascend 950 involvement; split unknown SPECULATION
nativeTraffic DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% (4:1 / 56%) DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption. · 2025 disclosed traffic shape carried forward SPECULATION
dive.rentMult 0.857 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 100 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 1.05 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact batch §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.blend {"h800":100} §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

DeepSeek V4-Flash (284B/13B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 13 Official release DISCLOSED
total 284 Official release DISCLOSED
precision fp4 Same selective-FP4 family as V4 Pro DISCLOSED
priceIn 0.14 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 0.28 api-docs.deepseek.com pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 2 $0.0028/$0.14 = 2% DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":50,"h20":20,"ascend":30} Same speculative China mix as V4 Pro SPECULATION
nativeTraffic DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% (4:1 / 56%) DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption. · 2025 traffic shape carried forward SPECULATION

GLM 5.2 (744B/40B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 40 Open release DISCLOSED
total 744 Open release DISCLOSED
precision fp8 BF16/FP8 checkpoints; first-party serving precision undisclosed (W8A8/W4A8 recipes exist) SPECULATION
priceIn 1.4 Z.ai international pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 4.4 Z.ai international pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 19 $0.26/$1.40 = 19% DISCLOSED
blend {"ascend":40,"h800":40,"h20":20} Nine domestic platforms named, zero shares disclosed SPECULATION
nativeTraffic ncode-informed scenario 8:1 / 41% (8:1 / 41%) The 41% cache-hit rate and 81k-token average inputs are @_xjdr's free-week observations; the 8:1 input:output ratio is a site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption (the cited posts report no output-length or I/O split). One event informing a scenario, not a generic 'coding' archetype. · Site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption; @_xjdr reported 81k average inputs but no output-length or I/O split SPECULATION
dive.rentMult 1.9 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.util 75 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.stackMult 0.6 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.interact balanced §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.batchShare 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption
dive.discount 0 §10 dive replay (see the provider dive in this annex) dive assumption

GLM-4.7 (355B/32B)

parameter adopted value source label
active 32 Open release DISCLOSED
total 355 Open release DISCLOSED
precision fp8 BF16/FP8 checkpoints; first-party serving precision undisclosed SPECULATION
priceIn 0.6 Z.ai pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 2.2 Z.ai pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 18 $0.11/$0.60 ≈ 18% DISCLOSED
blend {"ascend":40,"h800":40,"h20":20} As GLM-5.2 — nine platforms named, shares unknown SPECULATION
nativeTraffic ncode-informed scenario 8:1 / 41% (8:1 / 41%) The 41% cache-hit rate and 81k-token average inputs are @_xjdr's free-week observations; the 8:1 input:output ratio is a site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption (the cited posts report no output-length or I/O split). One event informing a scenario, not a generic 'coding' archetype. · Carries over GLM-5.2's site-assumed 8:1; no GLM-4.7 traffic telemetry supports it SPECULATION

GPT-5.6 Terra (tariff scenario) — TARIFF SCENARIO (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 50 Scenario central from dive range 20–110B SPECULATION
total 1000 Scenario central from dive range 0.25–5T SPECULATION
precision fp8 Family assumption SPECULATION
priceIn 2.5 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 15 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 10 90% cache discount (OpenAI standard) DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":20,"h200":25,"gb200":45,"gb300":10} Sol's fleet assumption SPECULATION
nativeTraffic OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% (9:1 / 78%) The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry. · Same 7:2:1 convention as Sol CREDIBLY REPORTED

GPT-5.6 Luna (tariff scenario) — TARIFF SCENARIO (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 20 Scenario central from dive range 8–50B SPECULATION
total 250 Scenario central from dive range 0.05–1.5T SPECULATION
precision fp8 Family assumption SPECULATION
priceIn 1 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 6 OpenAI pricing DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 10 90% cache discount DISCLOSED
blend {"h100":20,"h200":25,"gb200":45,"gb300":10} Sol's fleet assumption SPECULATION
nativeTraffic OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% (9:1 / 78%) The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry. · Sol convention CREDIBLY REPORTED

Gemini 3.5 Flash (tariff scenario) — TARIFF SCENARIO (speculative sizes)

parameter adopted value source label
active 20 Speed-based community guesses 10–16B; scenario value SPECULATION
total 600 Bracketed 0.4–1.2T in the dive; 405B lower-bound applies to the PRIOR generation SPECULATION
precision fp8 Unknown; FP8-equivalent assumed SPECULATION
priceIn 1.5 Gemini API pricing DISCLOSED
priceOut 9 Gemini API pricing (incl. thinking) DISCLOSED
cacheReadMult 10 $0.15/$1.50 = 10% DISCLOSED
blend {"tpu7":100} TPU (as 3.1 Pro) SPECULATION
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. · Default reference mix SPECULATION

Custom (define with sliders)

parameter adopted value source label
active 100 User input (slider) USER-SET
total 1000 User input (slider) USER-SET
precision fp8 User input (slider) USER-SET
priceIn 3 User input (slider) USER-SET
priceOut 15 User input (slider) USER-SET
nativeTraffic Reference 15:1 / 60% (15:1 / 60%) Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point. calculator default

Perspective presets

[lens] Central scenario (Claude)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Hourly-rate basis — a page-assembled mixture of public and analyst-set low/committed values SPECULATION
rentMult 1 Exactly 1.0× the heterogeneous registered planning vector SPECULATION
util 50 Page-set 30–60% sensitivity band, middle SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Open-source-best (SGLang-class) = 1.0 by construction COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
interact balanced Balanced latency — neither batch-farm nor premium-interactive SPECULATION
batchShare 15 Modest batch-tier adoption SPECULATION
discount 5 Light enterprise discounting SPECULATION

[replay] §10 dive (this model)

Sets nothing — replays the model's own §10 dive fields (see each model's dive.* rows).

[analyst route · SemiAnalysis / Dylan Patel] ≥90% · owned-TCO estate route

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode tco Page-chosen owned-TCO basis — hourly cost built from capex, power, datacenter and opex SPECULATION
util 55 Page-set 55% occupancy scenario value SPECULATION
stackMult 1.1 Page-set 1.1× serving-stack scenario value SPECULATION
interact balanced Central-scenario balanced latency SPECULATION
batchShare 15 Central-scenario 15% batch-tier share SPECULATION
discount 5 Central-scenario 5% blended discount SPECULATION

[analyst route · TeorTaxes] 80–90% · 1.0× planning-rate vector, aggressive stack, throughput

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Page-set hourly-rate basis using the heterogeneous registered vector SPECULATION
rentMult 1 Page-set 1.0× planning-vector multiplier SPECULATION
util 70 Page-set 70% fleet-utilization scenario value SPECULATION
stackMult 1.25 Page-set 1.25× serving-stack scenario value SPECULATION
interact batch Page-set throughput-first serving SPECULATION
batchShare 10 Page-set 10% batch-price share SPECULATION
discount 0 Page-set 0% negotiated discount SPECULATION

[analyst route · Zephyr] 80–90% · 0.9× planning-rate vector, above-baseline stack

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Page-set hourly-rate basis using the heterogeneous registered vector SPECULATION
rentMult 0.9 Page-set 0.90× planning-vector multiplier SPECULATION
util 65 Page-set 65% occupancy scenario value SPECULATION
stackMult 1.15 Page-set 1.15× serving-stack scenario value SPECULATION
interact batch Page-set throughput-first serving SPECULATION
batchShare 10 Page-set 10% batch-price share SPECULATION
discount 0 Page-set 0% negotiated discount SPECULATION

[analyst route · FleetingBits] <60% · reported-margin inverse diagnostic

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Page-chosen hourly-rate stress basis to test the reported figures SPECULATION
rentMult 1.6 Page-set 1.6× stress multiplier on the heterogeneous registered vector, inspired by public cloud-markup ranges but not a matched market basket SPECULATION
util 35 Page-set 35% (peak-provisioning story) SPECULATION
stackMult 0.85 Page-set 0.85× scenario value SPECULATION
interact balanced Page-set balanced mode SPECULATION
batchShare 25 Page-set 25% scenario value SPECULATION
discount 20 Page-set 20% (enterprise discounting is real, the level is page-chosen) SPECULATION

[analyst route · TeorTaxes] 90–95% · the batch mechanism, applied alone

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode tco Page-chosen owned-TCO basis, inherited unchanged from the ≥90% route SPECULATION
util 55 Page-set 55% occupancy, inherited unchanged — deliberately NOT raised, so the batch lever is measured alone SPECULATION
stackMult 1.1 Page-set 1.1× serving-stack value, inherited unchanged SPECULATION
interact batch THE CLAIM'S OWN LEVER: the throughput serving regime — this engine's reading of 'increase the batch size, have the same speed' SPECULATION
batchShare 15 Central-scenario 15% batch-tier share, inherited unchanged SPECULATION
discount 5 Central-scenario 5% blended discount, inherited unchanged SPECULATION

[lens] Strategic-partner fleet (GPT-5.6 Pro)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame at strategic rates SPECULATION
rentMult 0.7 Site applies SemiAnalysis's ~$1.60/TPU-hour estimate (Nov 2025 analysis of the 600k GCP-rented TPU tranche, inclusive of Google's margin — an estimate, not a disclosed contract price) as a 0.7x scalar across the modeled heterogeneous fleet SPECULATION derived from CREDIBLY REPORTED
util 70 Its 75% occupancy central (70 used here) SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Mature-lab stack ≈ OSS-best SPECULATION
interact batch Throughput-oriented economic-marginal frame SPECULATION
batchShare 0 Not separately modeled by the dive SPECULATION
discount 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
blend {"tpu7":40,"gb300":25,"gb200":15,"trn2":15,"h200":5} Its stated 40/25/15/15/5 TPU-heavy fleet SPECULATION

[estimate · archived] Strategic/owned expectation (GPT-5.6 Pro, contextual)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame at strategic/owned-opportunity rates SPECULATION
rentMult 1 1.0 global — this reading carries its posture PER FAMILY instead, so no fleet-wide scalar is asserted SPECULATION
rentMultLeg {"h100":0.95,"h200":0.95,"gb200":0.95,"gb300":0.95,"h800":0.95,"h20":0.95,"tpu7":0.5,"trn2":0.85,"trn3":0.85} Its own per-family fallback midpoints: NVIDIA 0.95x (declared range 0.90-1.00), TPU 0.50x (0.30-0.70), Trainium 0.85x (0.70-1.00) at zero headline weight. Every one is the midpoint of a range it declined to collapse, labeled by its author as a rendering convenience and explicitly not to be tuned toward a target margin SPECULATION (range midpoints, NOT pinned values)
util 65 Its stated 65% paid-capacity occupancy midpoint over a 50-80% band — its analyst judgment, not a source SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Open-source-best baseline; no generalized speculative-decoding credit taken SPECULATION
interact balanced Balanced latency SPECULATION
batchShare 0 List-only billing — the review's explicit instruction for a published-tariff headline SPECULATION
discount 0 List-only billing — no negotiated discount SPECULATION
blend {"h100":5,"h200":10,"gb200":25,"gb300":20,"tpu7":40} Its fallback renderer midpoint (NVIDIA 60 / TPU 40 / Trainium 0) inside declared family constraints of 50-65% NVIDIA, 35-50% TPU, 0-15% Trainium; Trainium EXCLUDED from the point pending the form repair. The author labels the point itself as not publicly identified SPECULATION (family constraints, midpoint rendering)
dialRanges {"util":{"lo":50,"mid":65,"hi":80},"cacheHit":{"lo":40,"mid":60,"hi":80},"rentMultFam.nvidia":{"lo":0.9,"mid":0.95,"hi":1},"rentMultFam.tpu":{"lo":0.3,"mid":0.5,"hi":0.7},"rentMultFam.trainium":{"lo":0.7,"mid":0.85,"hi":1},"blend.fam.nvidia":{"lo":50,"hi":65},"blend.fam.tpu":{"lo":35,"hi":50},"blend.fam.trainium":{"lo":0,"hi":15}} The five dials this loadable vector declares as RANGES rather than points, in its own numbers: occupancy 50-80 (stated midpoint 65), effective compute-side cache reuse 40-80 (value 60), and procurement per family — NVIDIA 0.90-1.00, TPU 0.30-0.70 ('where the economic-regime disagreement is concentrated'), Trainium 0.70-1.00 at zero headline weight. The middle of each is its stated MEDIAN, not a computed mean, and the ends are the author's, not this page's: it wrote 'this is deliberately range-valued where the public record does not identify a point' and asked that the midpoints not be tuned until the target margin appears. Its other declared ranges are NOT carried, because this engine has no dial that means them: billable cache share (core 40-60), cost of serving a hit (2-15), cache write share (0-10) and the eligible-leg speculative-decode credit (1.00-1.10) each name a control this page either normalizes or gate-blocks, and rendering them on a neighbouring dial would misattribute the claim DECLARED RANGES (author's own, median-parameterised)

[estimate · archived] Per-leg strategic posture (Fable 5, independent)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame at per-leg strategic rates SPECULATION
rentMult 1 1.0 global — the posture is carried per leg, not by a fleet-wide scalar SPECULATION
rentMultLeg {"h100":1,"h200":1,"gb200":1,"gb300":1,"tpu7":0.3,"trn2":0.7,"trn3":0.7} Its declared per-leg posture: TPU x0.30 (the strategic TPU rate this page already registers, applied to that leg alone), Trainium x0.70, and every NVIDIA leg left explicitly UNDISCOUNTED at 1.0 — a discount it declined to claim SPECULATION derived from CREDIBLY REPORTED
util 60 Its declared 60% fleet occupancy (band 50-70), held deliberately unmoved rather than raised to preserve altitude where the lead is withdrawn SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Open-source-best baseline; its declared efficiency credit rides beside the vector, not inside a dial SPECULATION
interact balanced Balanced latency SPECULATION
batchShare 15 This page's illustrative billing mix, kept deliberately so its number is comparable to the published reading SPECULATION
discount 5 This page's illustrative billing mix (5%) SPECULATION
dialRanges {"util":{"lo":50,"mid":60,"hi":70}} The ONE axis of its band assembly its author stated in numbers: paid-capacity occupancy 50-70 around a stated 60. Its other two band axes are deliberately NOT rendered — 'rates half-to-full-strategic' is a qualitative phrase this page will not convert into an adjudicator's numbers on their behalf, and the lead axis ('0-to-+3-not-stacked') is one this author explicitly instructs must not be switched on to reach its headline, because the serving-stack credit it took instead already covers part of the same mechanism. The band a reader sees here is therefore narrower than its author's stated 70-84, and the preset note says so rather than letting the narrower band pass as the whole claim DECLARED RANGE (one axis; the other two are stated qualitatively and left unrendered)

[stress case] Public-rate reproducibility floor

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame on the registered heterogeneous planning vector SPECULATION
rentMult 1 1.0x — no procurement judgment applied SPECULATION
util 50 50% — the page's unmoved occupancy value SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Open-source-best = 1.0 by construction COMMUNITY ESTIMATE
interact balanced Balanced latency SPECULATION
batchShare 15 The page's illustrative billing mix (15%) — note the only public figure anyone has for batch adoption is a surveyed ~4%, which is a labeled scenario anchor and not a provider disclosure SPECULATION
discount 5 The page's illustrative billing mix (5%) SPECULATION

[estimate · page-open default] Strategic/owned expectation (GPT-5.6 Pro, contextual)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rent — 'a strategic-contract rental lens, not an owned-TCO construction' DECLARED (author's own)
rentMult 1 1.0 global, held as a POINT on purpose: 'procurement uncertainty is carried by the leg ranges, so a global range would add a second copy of the same uncertainty' DECLARED (author's own)
rentMultLeg {"h100":0.95,"h200":0.95,"gb200":0.95,"gb300":0.95,"h800":0.95,"h20":0.95,"tpu7":0.5,"trn2":0.85,"trn3":0.85} The procurement structure: a FAMILY ranges moved onto the legs that actually price, medians unchanged (NVIDIA legs 0.95, TPU v7 0.50, Trainium 0.85), with every family multiplier pinned at 1.0 so a family discount and a leg discount can never multiply into two copies of one claim DECLARED (author's own)
util 65 65 % median — 'no representative Anthropic occupancy telemetry identifies a narrower distribution' DECLARED (author's own)
stackMult 1 1.0 — the same published-open-practice referent as trendMonths = 0, so the residual private-stack claim is carried by the lead dial ALONE DECLARED (author's own)
interact balanced Balanced — its author's stated reason for holding it as a point is that throughput-first and low-latency are discrete scenario branches, not ordered quantiles with a defensible median DECLARED (author's own)
batchShare 0 0 % — the headline is explicitly AT LIST, so no discounted batch mix is assumed DECLARED (author's own)
discount 0 0 % — at list, for the same stated reason as batchShare DECLARED (author's own)
blend {"h100":5,"h200":10,"gb200":25,"gb300":20,"tpu7":40} h100 5 / h200 10 / gb200 25 / gb300 20 / tpu7 40, held as a POINT and the uncertainty LOGGED rather than faked: its author declines to invent independent scalar bands for a compositional variable whose shares must sum to 100 % DECLARED (author's own); its uncertainty is a logged calculator gap, not a hidden assumption
dialRanges {"trendMonths":{"lo":0,"mid":2,"hi":4},"util":{"lo":50,"mid":65,"hi":80},"cacheHit":{"lo":40,"mid":60,"hi":80},"billCacheHit":{"lo":40,"mid":60,"hi":80},"cacheCost":{"lo":2,"mid":5,"hi":15},"cacheWriteShare":{"lo":0,"mid":0,"hi":10},"rentMultFam.nvidia":{"lo":0.9,"mid":0.95,"hi":1},"rentMultLeg.tpu7":{"lo":0.3,"mid":0.5,"hi":0.7},"rentMultLeg.trn2":{"lo":0.7,"mid":0.85,"hi":1},"rentMultLeg.trn3":{"lo":0.7,"mid":0.85,"hi":1},"blend.fam.nvidia":{"lo":50,"hi":65},"blend.fam.tpu":{"lo":35,"hi":50},"blend.fam.trainium":{"lo":0,"hi":15,"split":{"trn2":1,"trn3":0}}} FIFTEEN declared three-point ranges, all author-stated. Three of them are dials this page had never carried — billCacheHit (previously left implicitly equal to serving reuse), cacheCost (previously a point with a verbal core range), and a deliberately ONE-SIDED cacheWriteShare 0/0/10. The lead axis moves off zero to 0/2/4. The procurement widths are family widths re-expressed per leg. What is NOT here is as declared as what is: precision, interactivity and hardware basis stay points because they are categorical scenario branches, and the fleet blend stays a point because the calculator has no compositional range that preserves a 100 % simplex — both logged as gaps rather than coerced into false quantiles DECLARED RANGE (fifteen axes, all author-stated; three of them dials this page had never carried)

[estimate] Per-leg strategic posture (Fable 5, independent)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame at per-leg strategic rates DECLARED (author's own)
rentMult 1 1.0 global — its own words: 'the posture is per leg, never a fleet-wide scalar' DECLARED (author's own)
rentMultLeg {"h100":1,"h200":1,"gb200":1,"gb300":1,"tpu7":0.3,"trn2":0.7,"trn3":0.7} Its per-leg posture, central values declared by their author: TPU x0.30 (the strategic TPU rate this page already registers, applied to that leg alone), Trainium x0.70, every NVIDIA leg UNDISCOUNTED at 1.0 — the declined NVIDIA discount stands, and it is pinned as a zero-width range rather than left in prose DECLARED (author's own); the TPU rate itself is CREDIBLY REPORTED and registered by this page
util 60 Its declared 60% fleet occupancy — its own words: 'no altitude bought back through occupancy' DECLARED (author's own)
stackMult 1 Open-source-best baseline, held at 1.0 at EVERY point of the band — the same referent as the lead slider's zero, kept there deliberately so the serving-stack mechanism is counted exactly once now that the credit lives inside the lead dial DECLARED (author's own)
interact balanced Balanced latency, declared by its author DECLARED (author's own)
batchShare 15 This page's illustrative billing mix (15%) — not the author's number but its author's explicit CHOICE to adopt it, kept so this reading stays comparable with its author's own published one DECLARED (author adopted this page's illustrative mix, and said why)
discount 5 This page's illustrative billing mix (5%) — adopted on the same stated ground as batchShare DECLARED (author adopted this page's illustrative mix, and said why)
dialRanges {"util":{"lo":50,"mid":60,"hi":70},"trendMonths":{"lo":0,"mid":1,"hi":2},"rentMultLeg.tpu7":{"lo":0.3,"mid":0.3,"hi":0.65},"rentMultLeg.trn2":{"lo":0.7,"mid":0.7,"hi":0.85},"rentMultLeg.trn3":{"lo":0.7,"mid":0.7,"hi":0.85},"rentMultLeg.h100":{"lo":1,"mid":1,"hi":1},"rentMultLeg.h200":{"lo":1,"mid":1,"hi":1},"rentMultLeg.gb200":{"lo":1,"mid":1,"hi":1},"rentMultLeg.gb300":{"lo":1,"mid":1,"hi":1},"blend.fam.nvidia":{"lo":35,"hi":65},"blend.fam.tpu":{"lo":15,"hi":40},"blend.fam.trainium":{"lo":5,"hi":35}} NINE declared three-point ranges, and every one of them is its author's own number rather than this page's reading of its prose. The two axes this page previously refused to render — 'rates half-to-full-strategic' and the lead axis '0-to-+3-not-stacked' — were returned as numbers by their author: the rates axis as per-leg ranges (TPU 0.30-0.65 around a degenerate 0.30 low, because 0.30 IS its full-strategic floor and it claims nothing cheaper), and the lead axis as 0/1/2. The lead HI is anchored to the OpenAI 2026-07-29 first-party '-20% end-to-end serving costs' datapoint (2.437 months at the ratified 3x/yr) and then integer-FLOORED to 2 rather than rounded, its author's stated reason being that the evidence is OpenAI's while this page's subject is Anthropic. The four NVIDIA legs carry deliberately zero-width ranges: a pinned claim of no discount, not an absent one DECLARED RANGE (nine axes, all author-stated; the two formerly-verbal axes are now numbers)

[valuation replay] xAI cash-marginal (dive operating point)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame carrying the cash rate SPECULATION
rentMult 0.156 $0.60 ÷ the Colossus blend's $3.85 weighted rate = 0.156 SPECULATION
util 48 Held at the dive's operating point — only the valuation changes across the three xAI lenses SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Dive operating point SPECULATION
interact batch Dive operating point SPECULATION
batchShare 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
discount 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
ioRatio 3 The dive's 3:1 uncached workload — held fixed across all three xAI lenses SPECULATION
cacheHit 0 Dive workload (uncached) SPECULATION

[valuation replay] xAI opportunity-cost (Anthropic contract)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental frame carrying the contract rate SPECULATION
rentMult 1.37 $5.27 ÷ $3.85 blend rate = 1.37 DISCLOSED (rate); SPECULATION (application)
util 48 Held at the dive's operating point SPECULATION
stackMult 1 Dive operating point SPECULATION
interact batch Dive operating point SPECULATION
batchShare 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
discount 0 List-price frame SPECULATION
ioRatio 3 The dive's 3:1 uncached workload — held fixed across all three xAI lenses SPECULATION
cacheHit 0 Dive workload (uncached) SPECULATION

[lens] China public-cloud on-demand (Jul 2026)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental (public rate cards) DISCLOSED
rentMult 6.15 Grounding-pack computation vs IDC defaults: H20 6.24×, H800 6.07×, 910C-proxy 6.15× (rate cards DISCLOSED; the blend into one multiplier is analytic) DISCLOSED (rates); SPECULATION (blend)
util 35 Enterprise on-demand occupancy per the grounding pack (~35%) SPECULATION
stackMult 1 OSS baseline SPECULATION
interact balanced Balanced SPECULATION
batchShare 0 None SPECULATION
discount 0 None SPECULATION

[source-informed scenario] Ant Group H20 (NOT Anthropic — Ant Group)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Rental at the page's H20 IDC rate SPECULATION
rentMult 1 1.0 — Ant's own cost basis is undisclosed SPECULATION
util 100 100 = per-occupied-chip convention; Ant's fleet occupancy is undisclosed SPECULATION (convention)
stackMult 1 1.0 = the page's source-informed neutral H20 coefficient, not an anchor fit SPECULATION
interact batch Page-authored throughput-mode batch rule; no TTFT/TPOT constraint is enforced SPECULATION
batchShare 0 Not applicable SPECULATION
discount 0 Not applicable SPECULATION
blend {"h20":100} H20-only, matching the published accelerator family DISCLOSED (family only)

[replay] DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025)

parameter adopted value source label
hwMode rent Their stated leasing-cost frame DISCLOSED
rentMult 1.14 $2/hr ÷ current IDC $1.75 = 1.14× DISCLOSED (assumption in source)
util 100 100% — disclosed throughputs are averages over deployed nodes; a divisor would double-count idle time DISCLOSED (derived)
stackMult 1 Their stack = the calibration baseline DISCLOSED
interact batch Throughput-first production serving DISCLOSED
batchShare 0 Not applicable in their billing DISCLOSED
discount 0 Theoretical list billing (their own caveat: realized was lower) DISCLOSED
blend {"h800":100} All-H800 (disclosed) DISCLOSED

Traffic-mix profiles (v2.1.2 axis)

profile I/O cache hit provenance
Reference 15:1 / 60% 15:1 60% Calculator convention — the held-fixed scenario the normalized table uses. Not any provider's measured operating point.
OpenAI dive mix 9:1 / 78% 9:1 78% The OpenAI dive's 7 cached : 2 fresh : 1 output convention — a dive assumption, not disclosed telemetry.
DeepSeek disclosure (Feb 2025) 4:1 / 56% 4:1 56% DeepSeek's Feb 2025 production disclosure (measured). Their 56.3% is a DISK-cache-hit share; treating it as billable cached-input share is a labeled assumption.
ncode-informed scenario 8:1 / 41% 8:1 41% The 41% cache-hit rate and 81k-token average inputs are @_xjdr's free-week observations; the 8:1 input:output ratio is a site-authored Zhipu-dive assumption (the cited posts report no output-length or I/O split). One event informing a scenario, not a generic 'coding' archetype.
Kimi dive mix 8:1 / 40% 8:1 40% The Moonshot dive's Mooncake-like convention — a dive assumption the dive itself declined to firm up.
Uncached 3:1 / 0% 3:1 0% The xAI dive's operating convention: output-heavy traffic, no billed prefix cache.

Hardware table (per-platform adopted values)

The numerical roofline path reads HW_ROOFLINE, CALIBRATION, and PREFILL_CAL; the retired HW.*.effDec/effPre compatibility fields are deliberately absent.

platform parameter adopted value provenance / status
H100 SXM flops.bf16 990000000000000 FLOP/s published — 989 TF dense BF16 (NVIDIA datasheet); equals fp8/2, consistent with fallback rule C10
H100 SXM flops.fp8 1980000000000000 FLOP/s published — 1,979 TF dense FP8 (NVIDIA datasheet; = engine.js flopsFp8 1.98 carried)
H100 SXM hbmBytes 85520809984 B (85.521 decimal GB) observed framebuffer — nvidia-smi total 81,559 MiB × 2^20 = 85,520,809,984 B for 'NVIDIA H100 80GB HBM3' (verified 2026-07-18 across 6+ independent pasted outputs: scaleway.com MIG guide, github.com/wilicc/gpu-burn#114, docs.databricks.com H100 starter, support.crusoecloud.com, github.com/ray-project/ray#53266). The '80 GB' label × 1e9 undercounts this by ~6.9% (R5 finding).
H100 SXM bwHBM 3350000000000 B/s published — H100 SXM HBM3 3.35 TB/s (NVIDIA datasheet; = engine.js bw 3.35 in SI B/s)
H100 SXM fabric 900000000000 B/s published — NVIDIA H100 datasheet: NVLink (4th gen) 900 GB/s aggregate bidirectional per GPU (nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/h100, verified 2026-07-18). Same convention as the frozen h800 400e9 (the export-capped variant of this same fabric).
H100 SXM nShard 144 N_shard; analyst-declared strong topology carry — 144, copied from the sourced DeepSeek H800 EP144/DP144 decode deployment unit. H100 and H800 have identical registered compute, HBM bandwidth, and framebuffer capacity; their fabric difference does not enter MoE feasibility, and N_shard does not enter MoE decode throughput. No H100-specific EP144 deployment receipt exists: this is a physically coherent same-capacity deployment scenario, not an observed H100 width.
H100 SXM etaDec 0.313491 FITTED-inherited (h800 fit; 'H800-class compute', memo §2); evidence=fitted-inherited; inherits h800's deployed η; reproduces h100's current deployed 1,872.9730 tok/s exactly (identical FLOPS/HBM constants; binding t_H unaffected by the h100/h800 fabric difference — shown in the derivations file)
H100 SXM decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=144; sources=inherits CALIBRATION.h800 (FITTED-inherited; memo §2)
H100 SXM etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
H100 SXM rent $2.4/hr price evidence=analyst-set; economic basis note below
H100 SXM capex $25000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H100 SXM tdp 0.7 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H100 SXM economicBasisNote 2022. Anchor: DeepSeek served V3/R1 on H800 (H100-class compute). Prefill MFU is reconstructed FRESH-only (the disclosed 73.7k/node input flow includes the 56.3% disk-cache-hit share).
H200 flops.bf16 990000000000000 FLOP/s published — 989 TF dense BF16 (H200 datasheet); = fp8/2 (C10-consistent)
H200 flops.fp8 1980000000000000 FLOP/s published — 1,979 TF dense FP8, same Hopper compute as H100 (= engine.js flopsFp8 1.98)
H200 hbmBytes 150754820096 B (150.755 decimal GB) observed framebuffer — nvidia-smi total 143,771 MiB × 2^20 = 150,754,820,096 B for 'NVIDIA H200' (verified 2026-07-18, 5+ independent pasted outputs: github.com/NVIDIA/cuda-samples#311, forums.developer.nvidia.com peermem thread, github.com/axolotl-ai-cloud/axolotl#2688, userguide.ncshare.org, github.com/NVIDIA/cccl#1672). Note the '141 GB' label reads as ~GiB: observed FB ≈ 150.75e9 B.
H200 bwHBM 4800000000000 B/s published — H200 HBM3e 4.8 TB/s (NVIDIA datasheet; = engine.js bw 4.80)
H200 fabric 900000000000 B/s published — NVIDIA H200 datasheet: NVLink 900 GB/s (4th gen, SXM; PNY-hosted NVIDIA H200 NVL/SXM datasheet, verified 2026-07-18)
H200 nShard 144 N_shard; analyst-declared weak topology transfer — 144, copied from the sourced DeepSeek H800 EP144/DP144 decode deployment unit. H200 has the same registered compute but 1.76× the framebuffer and higher HBM bandwidth; DeepSeek states large EP is chosen partly to enlarge aggregate/per-expert batch, so EP144 remains plausible, but the added memory also permits a rational narrower deployment. No H200-specific width receipt exists. This topology assumption is independent of, and stacked with, the separate H800-η family transfer; η inheritance is not evidence for N_shard.
H200 etaDec 0.313491 family-transfer (in-family extrapolation off the H800/H100-class fit — tier-(b), memo §1; NOT in the joint-η bucket); evidence=family-transfer; h800's deployed η applied to h200 hardware constants (memo §1/§2). NOT tuned to reproduce the current hand-set effDec 0.085: at F1-op-point conditions the roofline gives ≈2,683.7 tok/s vs the current 2,274.3 (+18.0%) — an EXPECTED family-transfer movement, deltas tabulated at slice 2/3 (derivations file, finding 4)
H200 decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=144; sources=family-transfer off CALIBRATION.h800 (memo §1; derivations finding 4)
H200 etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
H200 rent $2.9/hr price evidence=analyst-set; economic basis note below
H200 capex $32000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H200 tdp 0.7 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H200 economicBasisNote Same compute as H100, 1.76× HBM capacity/1.4× bandwidth → better batching.
GB200 NVL72 flops.bf16 2500000000000000 FLOP/s C10 fallback — fp8/2 = 2.5 PF dense; consistent with NVIDIA's published precision ladder
GB200 NVL72 flops.fp8 5000000000000000 FLOP/s published — 5.0 PF dense FP8 per GPU (engine.js HW note: NVIDIA sparse/dense split verified; the widely-copied 4.5 PF is B200's)
GB200 NVL72 flops.fp4 10000000000000000 FLOP/s frozen — 10 PF dense NVFP4 (d2 §3.1 F4 recipe FLOPS=10e15 / roofline-diagnostic GB200 case; = 2× dense FP8 per NVIDIA ladder)
GB200 NVL72 hbmBytes 198674743296 B (198.675 decimal GB) observed framebuffer — nvidia-smi total 189,471 MiB × 2^20 = 198,674,743,296 B for 'NVIDIA GB200' per GPU (verified 2026-07-18: docs.nvidia.com NIM openfold3 arm64 prerequisites, support.crusoecloud.com NVBandwidth-on-GB200 guide, github.com/sgl-project/sglang#8911 and #7504). Distinct from standalone B200 180 GB; ≈185 GiB per GPU, the 186-GB-class B200-in-GB200 part.
GB200 NVL72 bwHBM 8000000000000 B/s published — 8 TB/s HBM3e per GPU (frozen F4 recipe hbmBps 8.0e12; = engine.js bw 8.00)
GB200 NVL72 fabric 1800000000000 B/s frozen — NVLink5 1.8 TB/s per GPU (d2 §3.1 F4 recipe / roofline-diagnostic.mjs GB200 case; memo §6 known value)
GB200 NVL72 nShard 8 N_shard; declared analyst default (unchanged from the pre-existing engine value), precision-conditioned — multiple Class C/D anchors support 8 as a genuinely deployed low-precision replica width, but per the 2026-07-20 GPT Pro evidence consult, the public record does not establish a specific required or minimum replica width for a multi-trillion-parameter closed-weight model at unknown precision (the actual Opus/5T scenario this engine models); see the declared-sensitivity case list on this row and research/gptpro-reports/2026-07-20-replica-width-consult.md.
GB200 NVL72 etaDec 0.315997 FITTED (deployed; computed per §2 rule — slice-1a derivation; b9 M1: precision double-credit REMOVED); evidence=fitted; 0.315997 IS THE FP4-BASIS COEFFICIENT, and its use in the FP8 default render is a DECLARED CONSERVATIVE TRANSFER, not a bridge (owner ruling q-im-fp4-gb200-eta-basis, 2026-08-02, accepted default; relabel only — no number moves). Executed through this repo's own roofline at F4's operating point, 0.315997 reproduces the 10,108 tok/s anchor to 0.06% ON THE FP4 TUPLE (10,114.4) and yields 6,408.5 on the FP8 tuple; the coefficient that reproduces the anchor in the FP8 basis is 0.498413. So at the FP8 default this row under-predicts its own best Blackwell measurement by ~1.58× — conservative, which is why every overclaim-tuned review passed it. THE RETIRED CLAIM, recorded so it cannot come back: b9 M1 (r4 defect D3, run B §B4/§C1) derived 0.315997 = 0.585795 / 1.8538 to de-embed the retired NVFP4 precision scalar, and called the result 'the FP8 bridge value', defended as equalling F4's own implied η 0.316 'an independent confirmation, not a second fit'. It is not independent: research/im3-slice1a-derivations.md:69-70 records that 0.585795 was CONSTRUCTED as 0.316 × 1.8538, so dividing it back cannot fail to return 0.316. The de-embedding correctly removed a double-counted scalar; it did not convert the basis. Slice-1a authored-decision item h (:204-207) registered the FP4 calibration basis as a choice FOR REVIEW with the FP8 alternative pre-computed (10,135.1 / 8,581.1 tok/s) — REOPENED, and the vLLM source-dtype resolution is a registered evidence task (research/update-queue.md). Three incompatible senses of 'the FP8 basis' are live in the documents (the legacy ladder rung 10,135.1, this de-embedded coefficient, and the live tuple render 6,408.5) and what ships is none of them; that is why this field no longer uses the phrase. Archived NVFP4 replay basis: engine deployed effDec 0.150 × PRECISION_MULT.fp4 1.85 ⇒ 18,750.000 tok/s (5.0e15 × 1.85 × 0.150 / 74e9) at the F4 operating point.
GB200 NVL72 decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=8; sources=research/evidence-instances-v22.json#gb200-vllm-r1; frozen d2 §3.1 F4 (vLLM R1 decode observation); research/reviews/im-adv-r4-runB-internal-raw.md §B4/§C1 (the de-embedding; its 'FP8 bridge value' label is RETIRED per q-im-fp4-gb200-eta-basis — see deployedBasis)
GB200 NVL72 etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
GB200 NVL72 rent $4.5/hr price evidence=observed-source-named; economic basis note below
GB200 NVL72 capex $45000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
GB200 NVL72 tdp 1.2 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
GB200 NVL72 economicBasisNote 72-GPU NVLink domain (~$3-3.5M/rack ⇒ ~$44-49k/GPU). Per-GPU dense FP8 = 5.0 PF (NVIDIA sparse/dense split, verified — the widely-copied 4.5 PF is B200's). The vLLM ~10.1k R1 decode observation anchors F4 at b=128/rank and L=3,000. The live FP8-basis coefficient is η=0.315997 after de-embedding the retired FP4 precision scalar; the source run's precision basis (possibly NVFP4) is not fully pinned, so treat it as an upper anchor rather than reapplying an FP4 gain. Neocloud rates $3.50-6/hr (Jul 2026). 2026-07-15 dive: AWS Capacity Block $761.904/rack-hr ($10.582/GPU-hr) is the cleanest explicit full-rack market datum; paired with audited MLPerf v6.0 rack throughput it derives $0.881/$0.630/$0.435 per M output tok (Interactive/Server/Offline) — a rack-scale bridge anchor, not fitted into this row's rent (left at the existing neocloud estimate).
GB300 NVL72 flops.bf16 2500000000000000 FLOP/s C10 fallback — fp8/2 = 2.5 PF dense
GB300 NVL72 flops.fp8 5000000000000000 FLOP/s carried — 5.0 PF dense FP8 (engine.js flopsFp8 5.00; Blackwell Ultra FP8 unchanged from GB200 basis in the engine row)
GB300 NVL72 flops.fp4 15000000000000000 FLOP/s frozen — C2: NVFP4 active path FLOPS = 15e15 (d2 §4.2; Blackwell Ultra 15 PF dense FP4, 1.67× B200)
GB300 NVL72 hbmBytes 298013687808 B (298.014 decimal GB) vendor-documented framebuffer — 284,208 MiB × 2^20 = 298,013,687,808 B per GPU: NVIDIA DGX GB300 NVL72 release notes (docs.nvidia.com/dgx/dgxgb300nvl72-release-notes, v1.0.0/1.0.1/1.0.6, known-issue 14) state 'NSM Type 3 (0x0C) and nvidia-smi (-q -d MEMORY) return 284,208 MiB, while Redfish TotalMemorySizeMiB returns 285,324 MiB'. The nvidia-smi value adopted (feasibility-conservative of the two); FLAGGED single-source-type — NVIDIA's own docs, no third-party pasted output found (verified 2026-07-18). ≈3.6% below the '288 GB'-as-GiB reading.
GB300 NVL72 bwHBM 8000000000000 B/s published — 288 GB HBM3e @ 8 TB/s per GPU (frozen §5 recipe 1-2; = engine.js bw 8.00)
GB300 NVL72 fabric 1800000000000 B/s memo §6 known value — NVLink5 1.8 TB/s per GPU (gb300 1.8e12, same NVLink5 domain as gb200; frozen §5 recipe 1-2)
GB300 NVL72 nShard 8 N_shard; declared analyst default (unchanged from the pre-existing engine value), precision-conditioned — multiple Class C/D anchors support 8 as a genuinely deployed low-precision replica width, but per the 2026-07-20 GPT Pro evidence consult, the public record does not establish a specific required or minimum replica width for a multi-trillion-parameter closed-weight model at unknown precision (the actual Opus/5T scenario this engine models); see the declared-sensitivity case list on this row and research/gptpro-reports/2026-07-20-replica-width-consult.md.
GB300 NVL72 etaDec 0.258295 analyst-set at a DECLARED assumed operating point (b9 M1 relabel — the prior FITTED label was FALSE: the calibration observation carries measured:null and an assumed batch; precision double-credit also REMOVED); evidence=analyst-set-assumed-op; 0.258295 IS AN FP4-BASIS COEFFICIENT used in the FP8 render as a DECLARED CONSERVATIVE TRANSFER, exactly as on gb200 and derived identically (owner ruling q-im-fp4-gb200-eta-basis, 2026-08-02; relabel only — no number moves). b9 M1 (r4 defects D3 + D6, run B §B4/§B12-2/§C1): 0.258295 = 0.477845 / 1.85, de-embedding the retired NVFP4 precision scalar from a value built at the NVFP4 tuple (research/im3-slice1a-derivations.md:72-78). The magnitude class matches gb200's: on the V4 Pro geometry this row renders 7,460.3 tok/s at FP4 — matching the site's own validation row — against 4,411.6 at FP8, a 1.69× gap. UNLIKE gb200 there is no measured anchor to under-predict (calObs.measured is null), so 'conservative by 1.69×' is a magnitude statement, not a demonstrated error. The row is ALSO relabelled from 'fitted' to analyst-set: measured:null and an ASSUMED batch, so no fit was ever performed here (run B: 'indefensible as fitted'). Archived NVFP4 replay basis: engine deployed effDec 0.127 × 1.85 ⇒ 15,875.000 tok/s (5.0e15 × 1.85 × 0.127 / 74e9) at the declared operating point L=2,740 (the C5 gb300 value). SCENARIO-ONLY (§C3): both the batch and the η are assumed; upgrading requires a reconstructable non-MTP serving curve — a registered evidence task (research/update-queue.md).
GB300 NVL72 decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=8; sources=research/evidence-instances-v22.json#gb300-analyst-set-dec; research/evidence-instances-v22.json#gb300-sglang-v4 (RETRO observation; excluded from fit set); memo §2 declared assumed operating point (source batch not reconstructable; excluded from fit set); research/reviews/im-adv-r4-runB-internal-raw.md §B1/§B4/§B12-2/§C1
GB300 NVL72 etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
GB300 NVL72 rent $6/hr price evidence=analyst-set; economic basis note below
GB300 NVL72 capex $55000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
GB300 NVL72 tdp 1.4 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
GB300 NVL72 economicBasisNote Blackwell Ultra: 15 PF dense FP4 (1.67× B200), 288GB HBM. The SGLang >12k tok/s/GPU V4 Pro observation (FP4+MTP, 49B active) is not a fit: its batch and MTP acceptance are not reconstructable. The live FP8-basis η=0.258295 is analyst-set at a declared b=128/rank, L=2,740 operating point after de-embedding the retired FP4 precision scalar. InferenceX ~17× H100 FP8. xjdr served GLM 5.2 on these ($4-7/hr early rates). 2026-07-15 dive: audited MLPerf v6.0 single-rack results now confirm generated-throughput at scale (NVIDIA Interactive 250,634 / Server 400,437 / Offline 647,076 gen tok/s; Nebius Server 575,580 / Offline 673,936 gen tok/s) — but NO numeric GB300 rack rental rate is public on any major provider checked (AWS/CoreWeave/Nebius/GCP/Azure/OCI/Crusoe, Jul 2026): model GB300 $/M-output as a function of rack-hour price, not a point estimate. Cleanest current Blackwell-Ultra pair is same-provider B300 (node-scale, not rack): Nebius 8-GPU MLPerf Server 60,413 gen tok/s at $7.85/GPU-hr ⇒ $0.289/M output.
H800 (China) flops.bf16 990000000000000 FLOP/s published — 989 TF dense BF16 (H100-class datasheet value); = fp8/2 (C10-consistent)
H800 (China) flops.fp8 1980000000000000 FLOP/s published — 1.98 PF dense FP8, H100-class compute (frozen F1 recipe flops 1.98e15; = engine.js flopsFp8 1.98)
H800 (China) hbmBytes 85520809984 B (85.521 decimal GB) observed framebuffer (H100-80GB-class carry) — nvidia-smi total 81,559 MiB × 2^20 = 85,520,809,984 B, verified for 'NVIDIA H100 80GB HBM3' (see h100.prov.hbmBytes sources); H800 is the same 80 GB SXM HBM3 die/SKU class and no H800-specific pasted output was found — the carry is labeled, not observed-on-H800 (R5 verification note).
H800 (China) bwHBM 3350000000000 B/s published — 3.35 TB/s HBM3 (H100-class; frozen F1 recipe hbmBps 3.35e12; = engine.js bw 3.35)
H800 (China) fabric 400000000000 B/s frozen — NVLink export-capped 400 GB/s aggregate bidirectional per GPU (H800 SKU; roofline-diagnostic.mjs H800 case; d2 receipt pack)
H800 (China) nShard 144 N_shard; PUBLISHED (R5 AMENDMENT: was analyst-declared 8, STALE — 'F1's 8-GPU node' is the anchor's per-node throughput-normalization basis, not the deployment width) — 144: DeepSeek Day-6 disclosure, verbatim: 'Decoding Phase [Routed Expert EP144, MLA/Shared Expert DP144]: Each deployment unit spans 18 nodes' (×8 GPUs = 144). Prefill unit = EP32/DP32 over 4 nodes (32 GPUs) — prefill width, NOT used by decode feasibility. Source 'deployment unit' adopted as memo §5 'replica width'. Cached: research/primary-sources/deepseek-day6-inference-2026-07-18/ (sha256 3b145f12…). Amends the memo §5 declared cell; adjudication in im3-slice1a-derivations.md §6.
H800 (China) etaDec 0.313491 FITTED (deployed; computed per §2 rule — slice-1a derivation); evidence=fitted; current engine deployed effDec 0.070 ⇒ 1,872.9730 tok/s (1.98e15 × 0.070 / 74e9) at the F1 operating point — the snapshot-pin ≈1,873 basis, which relates to the 1,850 source anchor through the engine's documented rounding conventions (memo §2)
H800 (China) decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=144; sources=research/evidence-instances-v22.json#h800-deepseek-prod-dec; frozen d2 §3.1 F1 (DeepSeek Feb 2025 production disclosure)
H800 (China) etaPre 0.17581 FITTED (identity, F7); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
H800 (China) rent $1.75/hr price evidence=observed-source-named; economic basis note below
H800 (China) capex $40000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H800 (China) tdp 0.7 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H800 (China) economicBasisNote H100 compute with NVLink capped at 400GB/s (export SKU, finite pre-ban stock — capex carries the scarcity premium). THE H800/H100 DIFFERENTIAL, STATED (d-im-h800, owner note aca09d 2026-08-18; grounded on the NVIDIA H800 datasheet 2631447 vs the H100 SXM datasheet, Lenovo Press LP1814, Tencent Cloud HCCPNV5): the export SKU differs from the H100 SXM in NVLink (400 vs 900 GB/s aggregate bidirectional) and FP64 (1 vs 34 TF) ONLY — FP8/BF16 tensor rate, 80 GB HBM3, 3.35 TB/s and 700 W are identical, so nothing else that reaches a serving number differs. CORRECTION to the 2026-08-16 annotation on this row (owner verbatim: 'H800 numbers are clearly broken'), which said the cap is modelled nowhere and that this engine has no fabric term on these rows: it does — HW_ROOFLINE carries 400e9 here and 900e9 on h100, and the live roofline consumes both (decode t_N = b·D/fabric, prefill t_fabric = D/fabric). What is true is that at every expert-parallel operating point this page ships the fabric term is SLACK under the frozen max() form (≈3% of the binding memory term at the page default, ≈13% on kimi), so this row and h100 render identical throughput, and that h100/h200 INHERIT the efficiency FITTED on this row (F1: DeepSeek's production disclosure ran on H800s). This row is therefore the MEASURED part; the borrowing rows are where the assumption lives, and the page's implicit assumption has been that the cap costs nothing. That assumption is now a NAMED, ADJUSTABLE fit-transfer assumption — nvlinkCapMinRatio, default 1.00 = this historical model — the assumed MINIMUM ratio of a borrowing row over its own capped counterfactual, applied per phase to the borrowing rows only, never here, never stacking on an advantage the roofline already renders, with the engine's own serial-exposure counterfactual (≈1.005× at the page default) and the sensitivity computed beside it. On the dense tensor-parallel donor the fabric term already BINDS prefill and the H100 renders ≈2.25× this row's prefill throughput with no lever at all. Why this row still renders a HIGHER margin than the H100 at the default: identical throughput at $1.75/hr against $2.40/hr — a rent difference the page states, not a finding about export SKUs. Registered evidence task E-2026-08-16-c (a matched capped-vs-uncapped serving observation) stays open; no such observation is public. THE DeepSeek V3/R1 workhorse. Prefill MFU = FRESH-only reconstruction (~4,026 tok/s/GPU net of the 56.3% disk-cache share; the raw 9,212 aggregate includes cache hits). Annual-commit IDC rate $1.47-2.06/hr mid-2026; DeepSeek's 2025 disclosure assumed $2/hr.
H20 (China) flops.bf16 148000000000000 FLOP/s C10 fallback — fp8/2 = 148 TF dense; matches NVIDIA's published H20 BF16 148 TF
H20 (China) flops.fp8 296000000000000 FLOP/s published — 296 TF dense FP8 (frozen F2/F3 recipes flops 0.296e15; = engine.js flopsFp8 0.296)
H20 (China) hbmBytes 102625181696 B (102.625 decimal GB) observed framebuffer — nvidia-smi total 97,871 MiB × 2^20 = 102,625,181,696 B for 'NVIDIA H20' (verified 2026-07-18: github.com/NVIDIA/TensorRT-LLM#8023, forums.developer.nvidia.com cudaLaunchHostFunc thread; same total documented for GH200's 96 GB HBM3 partition, docs.nvidia.com grace-perf-tuning-guide).
H20 (China) bwHBM 4000000000000 B/s published — 4.0 TB/s HBM3 (frozen F2/F3 recipes hbmBps 4.0e12; = engine.js bw 4.00)
H20 (China) fabric 900000000000 B/s frozen — 900 GB/s NVLink (H20 keeps full NVLink4; roofline-diagnostic.mjs H20 cases fabricBps 900e9)
H20 (China) nShard 16 N_shard; PUBLISHED (R5 AMENDMENT: was analyst-declared 8 'deployment-family convention', STALE — the F2/F3 anchor source states the width directly) — 16: LMSYS/Ant Group post (lmsys.org/blog/2025-09-26-sglang-ant-group), verbatim: 'The Decode instance is deployed on a 2-node setup (16× H20 GPUs)' / 'All Decode instances are deployed with a dual-node setup: Attention-DP16 + MoE-EP16'; prefill = single-node TP8 (prefill width, not used by decode feasibility). The repo already carried this at research/consultation-2026-07-10-roofline-verbatim.md:154 without it reaching the normative data. Cached: research/primary-sources/sglang-ant-h20-2026-07-18/ (sha256 53c49762…). Amends the memo §5 declared cell; adjudication in im3-slice1a-derivations.md §6.
H20 (China) etaDec 0.217022 analyst-set (source-informed neutral adjustment: deployed 680 tok/s differs from the 714 tok/s observation; not a fit); evidence=source-informed-neutral; legacy effDec 0.170 defines the neutral 680.0000 tok/s throughput target (0.296e15 × 0.170 / 74e9) at the F3 operating point; the executable roofline mapping is etaDec 0.217022. This is the hardware dive's neutral recommendation (≈680 basis), NOT the 714 anchor-reproducer (memo §2)
H20 (China) decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=16; sources=research/evidence-instances-v22.json#h20-ant-sglang-pro (F2 input observation); research/evidence-instances-v22.json#h20-ant-sglang (F3 input observation); research/evidence-instances-v22.json#h20-neutral-live-dec (live analyst-set identity); frozen d2 §3.1 F2/F3
H20 (China) etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
H20 (China) rent $1/hr price evidence=observed-source-named; economic basis note below
H20 (China) capex $20000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H20 (China) tdp 0.4 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
H20 (China) economicBasisNote The China-legal NVIDIA SKU: only 296 TF dense FP8 but 4.0 TB/s HBM — decode is bandwidth-bound, so it serves far better than its FLOPS suggest (hence the high effective MFU vs a tiny denominator). This row's executable roofline coefficient is the source-informed-neutral η_dec=0.217022; it maps the legacy effDec=0.170 throughput basis to the hardware dive's ~680 tok/s recommendation and does NOT fit Ant Group's relaxed <70ms production observation (714 tok/s at b=48, L=4,096, one-step/two-draft-token MTP with ~1.8-1.9 accepted tokens). Rental class matters: same chip spans ~$0.76 (IDC annual) to $7+ (hyperscaler on-demand).
TPU v7 Ironwood flops.bf16 2307000000000000 FLOP/s C10 fallback — fp8/2 = 2.307 PF dense (no published Ironwood dense-BF16 figure in the project source base; analyst-set via the C10 rule, labeled)
TPU v7 Ironwood flops.fp8 4614000000000000 FLOP/s published — 4,614 TF FP8 per Ironwood chip (frozen recipe 5 / C9-adjacent [RP §2b]; = engine.js flopsFp8 4.61)
TPU v7 Ironwood hbmBytes 206158430208 B (206.158 decimal GB) published, unit EXPLICIT at source — 192 GiB × 2^30 = 206,158,430,208 B: Google Cloud TPU docs table 'HBM capacity per chip (GiB) … 192' (docs.cloud.google.com/tpu/docs/tpu7x, also compute/docs/tpus/tpu-machines), corroborated by the Hot Chips 2025 Ironwood deck ('capacity 192 GiB, 8 stacks HBM3E') and arXiv:2606.15870 (verified 2026-07-18). No reserved-carve-out figure published; raw capacity adopted, labeled.
TPU v7 Ironwood bwHBM 7370000000000 B/s published — 7.37 TB/s HBM per chip (frozen recipe 5 'HBM 192 GB @ 7.37e12'; = engine.js bw 7.37)
TPU v7 Ironwood fabric 1200000000000 B/s frozen — ICI 1.2 TB/s per chip (d2 §5 recipe 5; memo §6 known value)
TPU v7 Ironwood nShard 4 N_shard; frozen — 4 (d2 §1.3: TP8 across 8 tensorcores = the 4-chip host, one replica)
TPU v7 Ironwood etaDec 0.55 analyst-set (platform-native aggregate-form bridge: two same-platform diagnostics 0.528/0.574, midpoint 0.55 — b9 M1; VALID ONLY in this row's declared decodeTrafficBasis); evidence=platform-native-aggregate-bridge; b9 M1 (r4 defect D2, run B §A4/§B1/§C1): the joint fleet fit 0.36142 is REJECTED as evidence for this row — it is a geometric mean over six NVIDIA/Ascend observations containing ZERO TPU data, against the project's own LOAO record of 37% average / 59% worst-case cross-platform transfer error. Replaced by the mean of two SAME-PLATFORM aggregate-form diagnostics: η ≈ 518.86 × 480 GB / (64 × 7.37 TB/s) = 0.528 from the rental anchor, and η ≈ 677 × 400 GB / (64 × 7.37 TB/s) = 0.574 from Google's July 2026 Ironwood playbook; midpoint 0.55, declared band 0.528–0.574. These are weight-only, representation-specific diagnostics (they ignore KV and recurrent-state traffic), so the coefficient is bound to decodeTrafficBasis 'replica-resident-distinct' and is NOT a universal platform efficiency. The retired ≈0.199 value is NOT the alternative: run B §A4 shows it is the coefficient required to reproduce the old anchor INSIDE the malformed per-device identity, absorbing the batch/weight unit mismatch rather than measuring efficiency.
TPU v7 Ironwood decodeTrafficBasis replica-resident-distinct paired eta representation=replica-resident-distinct; nPhysDeclared=16; sources=research/reviews/im-adv-r4-runB-internal-raw.md §A2/§A4/§B1/§C1; Google Ironwood Qwen 3.5 serving playbook 2026-07-14 (677 tok/s/chip, concurrency 64, 4 chips, 400 GB replica footprint — 79.6% of the discounted HBM roofline); TPU v7 Qwen3-Coder-480B rental anchor (518.86 tok/s/chip, stated concurrency 64 over 4 chips)
TPU v7 Ironwood etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
TPU v7 Ironwood rent $5.4/hr price evidence=observed-source-named; economic basis note below
TPU v7 Ironwood capex $35000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
TPU v7 Ironwood tdp 1 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
TPU v7 Ironwood economicBasisNote Google's inference TPU (GA Mar 31, 2026): 4,614 TF FP8 ≈ B200-class, 9,216-chip pods. Anthropic committed up to ~1M TPUs (Oct 2025). Rent = Google's PUBLISHED 3-year committed rate $5.40/chip-hr (b9 M1, r4 defect D4: the retired $4.20 sat BELOW every public comparator — 3-yr $5.40, DWS Flex $6, on-demand $12 — so it was never a purchasable market rate; this is a low/committed PLANNING rate, and it is labeled as one). 2026-07-15 dive: named-model accelerator-rental anchors exist (Qwen3-Coder-480B, 4 chips, 518.86 tok/s/chip ⇒ $6.42/M output on-demand, $2.89/M 3-yr) — barred from calibration as a RETRO evidence annotation (memo §2), though b9 M1 admits its aggregate-form weight-only efficiency reading (0.528) as one endpoint of this row's platform-native η bridge. The live decode path uses η_dec=0.55, the midpoint of that bridge (0.528 rental anchor / 0.574 Google Ironwood playbook), replacing the joint fleet fit that contained ZERO TPU observations. Google-internal fleet cost still unknown: no public Gemini-SKU→TPU mapping exists — estimates.
Trainium2 flops.bf16 650000000000000 FLOP/s frozen — C10 convention value 0.65e15/chip (d2 §4.2 C10; the dossier-stated 667 TF/chip is within 3% and is reported as sensitivity in the frozen C10 note, convention retained)
Trainium2 flops.fp8 1300000000000000 FLOP/s published — ~1.3 PF dense FP8 per chip (AWS Trainium2 spec; = engine.js flopsFp8 1.30)
Trainium2 hbmBytes 103079215104 B (103.079 decimal GB) frozen, unit explicit — the frozen d2 §5 recipe 6-7 states '96 GiB @ 2.9e12 per chip': 96 GiB × 2^30 = 103,079,215,104 B. No AWS framebuffer receipt; the frozen source's own GiB statement adopted.
Trainium2 bwHBM 2900000000000 B/s published — 96 GiB @ 2.9 TB/s per chip (frozen recipe 6-7; = engine.js bw 2.90)
Trainium2 fabric 1280000000000 B/s PUBLISHED (b9 M1 AMENDMENT: was frozen 1.024e12, STALE — run B §B1/§C1) — 1.28 TB/s NeuronLink per Trainium2 device (AWS specification). The frozen d2 §5 recipe 6-7 value of 1,024 GB/s materially understated the published hardware. NOTE: this term has NO effect on the displayed FP8/HBM-binding midpoint (the decode path binds on t_H, not t_N, at every default operating point) — it corrects the registry for subsequent communication-modeling scenarios (M2).
Trainium2 nShard 16 N_shard; frozen — 16 (d2 §1.3: TP16 = the 16-chip trn2.48xlarge instance, one replica)
Trainium2 etaDec 0.36142 analyst-set (joint fleet fit — out-of-family tier-(c)); evidence=joint-fit; joint fleet fit (frozen d2 §3.2); dense-TP row — t_cc applies per TCC_CONSTANTS (frozen §1.5), outside η. SCENARIO-ONLY (r4 §C3, b9 M1): no model-, topology- and SLO-matched Trainium serving throughput observation exists in the public record, so this coefficient CANNOT support a central Trainium margin — run B §A4: 'the joint η may remain only as a visibly marked sensitivity parameter'. Upgrading it requires a named model, topology, batch, precision, SLO and achieved output throughput.
Trainium2 decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=16; sources=frozen d2 §3.2 joint fleet fit
Trainium2 etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
Trainium2 rent $2.235/hr price evidence=observed-source-named; economic basis note below
Trainium2 capex $15000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
Trainium2 tdp 0.5 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
Trainium2 economicBasisNote GA Dec 2024. Project Rainier launched with ~500k Trainium2 for Anthropic (activated ~Nov 2025, confirmed running Claude inference alongside training); Anthropic reported >1M Trainium2 in use across AWS by Apr 2026 — inference/training allocation, utilization and internal rate undisclosed. Rent = AWS Capacity Blocks PUBLISHED $2.235/chip-hr (b9 M1, r4 defect D4: the retired $1.50 sat below the only public comparator). 2026-07-15 dive: a narrow public ENGINEERING anchor exists (AWS Neuron tutorials, batch=1/concurrency=1: Llama 3.3 70B spec-decode $68.90/M output tokens, Llama 3.1 405B $98.65/M) — not a production-TCO measurement, not fitted into this roofline. b9 M1 operating point: the AWS Qwen3-235B recipe on one trn2.48xlarge states replica-global batch 16 online / 64 offline (16 chips, tp_degree 64, attention-DP8, MoE EP32/TP2); the surrogate midpoint 32 replaces the retired b=4, which was an AWS tutorial demo value read as a production point. Throughput remains UNVERIFIED — no matched serving anchor exists — so this leg is scenario-only.
Trainium3 flops.bf16 671000000000000 FLOP/s PUBLISHED (post-review adjudication 2026-07-27) — the AWS Neuron architecture docs state BF16/FP16/TF32 dense = 671 TFLOPS/chip (the 2,517 figure is SPARSE) (https://awsdocs-neuron.readthedocs-hosted.com/en/latest/general/arch/neuron-hardware/trainium3.html). Replaces the C10 fp8/2 fallback of 1.255 PF, which overstated published dense BF16 by 1.87×. NOTE the same docs state Trainium2 BF16 = 667 TFLOPS; the trn2 row deliberately retains its frozen C10 convention value 0.65e15 (labeled, within 3%) — moving it is a frozen-recipe identity decision, flagged in the adjudication report.
Trainium3 flops.fp8 2510000000000000 FLOP/s published — 362 PF FP8 per 144-chip UltraServer ⇒ 2.51 PF/chip (engine.js trn3 note, GA Dec 2025); Neuron architecture docs concur: 2,517 MXFP8/MXFP4 TFLOPS/chip
Trainium3 flops.fp4 2510000000000000 FLOP/s published NATIVE (b9 M1 — run B §B4/§C1) — AWS states 2.517 PF for MXFP8 AND MXFP4 per Trainium3 device, i.e. ONE figure covering both formats. Registered EQUAL to the fp8 basis: native FP4 arithmetic exists, but no FP4 compute doubling is published, so the row takes the capacity/weight-loading benefit (PRECISION_TUPLES.trn3.fp4 sW 0.5) and NO throughput credit.
Trainium3 hbmBytes 154618822656 B (154.619 decimal GB) PUBLISHED (post-review adjudication 2026-07-27) — the AWS Neuron architecture docs are unit-explicit: 'HBM Capacity (GiB): 96 → 144' and '144 GiB of device memory' (https://awsdocs-neuron.readthedocs-hosted.com/en/latest/general/arch/neuron-hardware/trainium3.html, retrieved 2026-07-27). 144 GiB × 2^30 = 154,618,822,656 B. This REVERSES the external review's SI re-reading (144e9), which took the marketing page's loose '144 GB' label literally against the unit-explicit engineering docs; HBM3e stack capacities are physically binary quantities, and the trn2 row's frozen source states GiB for the same family.
Trainium3 bwHBM 4900000000000 B/s PUBLISHED — 144 GiB HBM3e at 4.9 TB/s per chip (AWS Neuron architecture docs; SI carry of bw 4.90).
Trainium3 fabric 2560000000000 B/s PUBLISHED (post-review adjudication 2026-07-27) — the AWS Neuron architecture docs state Inter-chip Interconnect 2,560 GB/sec/chip for Trainium3, in the same table and convention as Trainium2's 1,280 (already registered as 1.28e12) (https://awsdocs-neuron.readthedocs-hosted.com/en/latest/general/arch/neuron-hardware/trainium3.html). CONFLICT NOTED: the marketing page (https://aws.amazon.com/ec2/instance-types/trn3/) says '2TB/s of bandwidth per chip' for NeuronLink-v4 — likely a different direction/aggregation convention; the engineering docs' same-convention family figure is adopted. The displayed FP8/HBM-binding midpoint does not bind on t_N.
Trainium3 nShard 16 N_shard; analyst-declared — 16 (trn2 carry, memo §5)
Trainium3 etaDec 0.36142 analyst-set (joint fleet fit — out-of-family tier-(c); trn2-carry platform constants, labeled); evidence=joint-fit; joint fleet fit; no serving anchor of any kind exists for Trn3 (engine.js note: confirmed negative). SCENARIO-ONLY (r4 §C3, b9 M1): both the coefficient and the operating point are Trn2-derived carries — run B §B1: 'no central Trainium3 throughput should be represented as observed'. The row's rent is separately scenario-only (no public instance/UltraServer rate exists).
Trainium3 decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=16; sources=frozen d2 §3.2 joint fleet fit (trn2-carry platform constants)
Trainium3 etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
Trainium3 rent $2.2/hr price evidence=analyst-set; economic basis note below
Trainium3 capex $20000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
Trainium3 tdp 0.8 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
Trainium3 economicBasisNote GA Dec 2025: 144-chip UltraServers, 362 PF FP8 ⇒ 2.51 PF/chip, 144GB HBM3e. AWS's aggressive cost-per-token play — pricing estimates. 2026-07-15 dive: AWS has published a GPT-OSS-120B inference recipe but no achieved tok/s and no public Trn3 instance/UltraServer price — neither side of $/token is public; NO public serving anchor of any kind (confirmed negative).
Ascend 910C flops.bf16 752000000000000 FLOP/s ANALYST-SET, C10-ANALOG (flagged for 1a review) — 1.504e15/2 = 0.752e15. C10 as frozen reads 'bf16 = fp8_dense/2 where unpublished'; ascend has no fp8, so the rule is applied to its INT8 8-bit dense basis. This exactly carries the current engine's PRECISION_MULT.bf16 = 0.5 rendering behavior forward. Declared convention, not a published value.
Ascend 910C hbmBytes 128000000000 B (128.000 decimal GB) ANALYST CONVENTION (labeled) — 128e9 B, the SI reading of the '128 GB' label. R5 verification (2026-07-18) found NO Huawei datasheet with unit precision and NO pasted npu-smi output; third-party sources state a round '128 GB' (one outlier claims 96 GB) with the HBM generation itself contested (HBM2e vs HBM3). The SI reading is the conservative choice and matches the frozen d2 harness's own hbmCap 128e9 for the cm384 rows. Revisit if an npu-smi receipt surfaces.
Ascend 910C bwHBM 3200000000000 B/s published — 128 GB @ 3.2 TB/s per NPU (frozen recipe 3-4; = engine.js bw 3.20)
Ascend 910C fabric 784000000000 B/s frozen — UB (unified bus) 784 GB/s per NPU (d2 §5 recipe 3-4 / roofline-diagnostic.mjs Ascend cases)
Ascend 910C nShard 128 N_shard; declared — 128, the cm384 CO-LOCATION instance width (memo §5; frozen §1.3 co-loc 128). The 6P2D decode-pool width 144 (frozen §1.3) is an observation-level constant of the cm384-6p2d recipe, NOT this row's replica width.
Ascend 910C etaDec 0.299324 analyst-set (source-informed neutral adjustment: deployed 1,422.7 tok/s differs from the 1,943 tok/s observation; not a fit); evidence=source-informed-neutral; legacy effDec 0.070 defines the neutral 1,422.7027 tok/s throughput target (1.504e15 × 0.070 / 74e9) at the F5 operating point; the executable roofline mapping is etaDec 0.299324. This is the hardware dive's neutral recommendation, NOT the 1,943 anchor-reproducer (memo §2). 8-bit basis is INT8 (W8A8)
Ascend 910C decodeTrafficBasis active-parameter-surrogate paired eta representation=active-parameter-surrogate; nPhysDeclared=128; sources=research/evidence-instances-v22.json#ascend-cminfer-decode (F5 input observation); research/evidence-instances-v22.json#ascend-cminfer-15ms (F6 input observation); research/evidence-instances-v22.json#ascend-neutral-live-dec (live analyst-set identity); frozen d2 §3.1 F5/F6
Ascend 910C etaPre 0.17581 extrapolated (single-anchor transfer); frozen F7 identity fit: η_pre = 0.17581 (H800 fresh-prefill reconstruction ~4,026 tok/s/GPU at L_in = 4,989, FP8; d2 §3.1-§3.2). EVERY row's prefill leg computes the frozen E2 roofline with this single value (memo §8 universal-transfer rule). Prefill never carries a measured basis (IM5-5 boundary; no two-sided prefill evidence exists — BLOCK-2 item 9).
Ascend 910C rent $1.95/hr price evidence=observed-source-named; economic basis note below
Ascend 910C capex $23000 engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
Ascend 910C tdp 0.6 kW engine.js HW economic input; economic basis note below
Ascend 910C economicBasisNote Huawei's dual-die flagship (SMIC 7nm). NO native FP8 — 8-bit here means INT8 (1.504 PF per Huawei's Atlas spec; a widely-quoted 1,054 figure is a typo in the CloudMatrix paper). This row's executable roofline coefficient is the source-informed-neutral η_dec=0.299324; it maps the legacy effDec=0.070 throughput basis to the hardware dive's ~1,420 tok/s recommendation on an R1-class workload and does NOT fit Huawei's optimized source observation (1,943 tok/s at b=96, L=4,096, one speculative token at assumed 70% acceptance, q=2/a=1.7). DeepSeek's internal '60% of H100' eval implies a lower independent efficiency estimate (~5.5-6.5% of peak FLOPs). Rent = Huatai procurement award ($1.71-2.25/hr); CloudMatrix 384 ≈ RMB 60M. 2026-07-15 dive: a full 384-card CloudMatrix system (FlexNPU, arXiv:2606.04415) serves DeepSeek-R1 W8A8 at ≈633,000 generated tok/s system-wide under TTFT≤1s/TPOT≤50ms. CLOSED (owner ruling 2026-07-18, memo §9 'CM384 ruling'): these are EVIDENCE-RECORD ANNOTATIONS — never a selectable scenario, an operating point, or a calibration input — delivered full-system SLO point: 1,648 tok/s/card ⇒ 8.1%, mixed prefill+decode, all 384 cards charged; decode-pool standalone ceiling: 2,885 tok/s/decode-card ⇒ 14.2%, capacity ceiling, prefill hardware excluded. The full-system point brackets (corroborates) this row's deployed 7% default; the decode-pool ceiling does not (a different standalone measurand, ~1.49× above the full-system point) — neither is fitted into this row. No public CM384 hourly rental price exists — throughput anchored, cost unanchored. Cross-source proxy for the OLDER 910B chip (not this row): JD xLLM 709 gen tok/s/card × CTyun RMB 38.45/hr ⇒ ≈$2.09/M output (range $1.61-2.80/M), medium-low confidence. Ascend 920 has no official SKU, benchmark, deployment or price (Huawei's roadmap goes 910C→950PR/950DT→960→970, no 920) — excluded from this model.

438 parameter rows, regenerated from the registry on every run — node build-grounding-ledger.mjs.